The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter)
It's official: The US government has now entered day number 35, making it the LONGEST in history. Since the shutdown began on October 1st, the US government has borrowed $600 BILLION worth of debt. That's +$17 billion PER DAY. What's happening? Let us explain. ...
BREAKING: 67.6% of US consumers are now living paycheck to paycheck, according to a PYMNTS survey. Theis percentage has risen by +10 points over the last 18 months. This comes as nearly 30% of consumers lost their financial safety net before July 2020 and have struggled since. A similar percentag...
Mass buybacks are coming: Buyback authorization announcements have risen +16% YoY so far in 2025, reaching a record $1.15 TRILLION. This marks the 2nd consecutive yearly increase. Since the 2020 low, share repurchase authorizations have more than TRIPLED. Meanwhile, buybacks by the 4 largest US ...
What just happened? At 10:57 AM ET, President Trump canceled his meeting with China and said "massive" tariff increases are coming. 40 minutes later, the S&P 500 erased -$1.2 TRILLION of market cap. Is this dip a BUYING opportunity? Let us explain. (a thread) ...
This is the definition of broken: In 15 days, the Fed will cut rates for the first time in 2025, yet the 30Y Treasury Yield is now near 5.00%. We have RISING interest rates as markets "price-in" Fed interest rate CUTS. Do you realize what's happening? (a thread) ...
The Fed drama worsens: President Trump just signed an Executive Order which "fired" Fed Governor Cook due to a "Criminal Referral." Never in the 111-year history of the Fed has a President fired a Fed Governor. This would COMPLETELY shift the Fed. Here's why: (a thread) ...
Are you paying attention? Bitcoin is now up +55% since its April 2025 low, hitting a RECORD $115,000. Meanwhile, the US Dollar just had its WORST start to a year since 1973, falling nearly -11% in 6 months. This is not a coincidence. Let us explain. (a thread) ...
It's official: President Trump is now calling for the first 300+ basis point interest rate cut in US history. This would be 3 TIMES larger than the 100 bps cut on March 15th, 2020, the largest in history. So, what happens if the Fed does this? Let us explain. (a thread) ...
It's official: For the first time in history, Moody's has downgraded the United States' credit rating. Moody's cites concerns over soaring US debt levels with interest on US debt set to hit 30% of REVENUE by 2035. What does it all mean? Let us explain. (a thread) ...