@KobeissiLetter: It's official:The US governm...
@KobeissiLetter
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Nov 04, 2025
1
It's official:
The US government has now entered day number 35, making it the LONGEST in history.
Since the shutdown began on October 1st, the US government has borrowed $600 BILLION worth of debt.
That's +$17 billion PER DAY.
What's happening? Let us explain.
The US government has now entered day number 35, making it the LONGEST in history.
Since the shutdown began on October 1st, the US government has borrowed $600 BILLION worth of debt.
That's +$17 billion PER DAY.
What's happening? Let us explain.
2
Today marks day 35 of the 2025 US government shutdown.
This ties the longest shutdown in history seen during President Trump's 1st term, in December 2018.
Historically speaking, the average length of a shutdown is 8 days.
The current shutdown is now 4.5 TIMES longer.
This ties the longest shutdown in history seen during President Trump's 1st term, in December 2018.
Historically speaking, the average length of a shutdown is 8 days.
The current shutdown is now 4.5 TIMES longer.
3
And, the end appears to be distant at best.
Currently, markets see the US government shutdown lasting until December 1st, per Polymarket.
This would mark a 61 day government shutdown, or 26 days LONGER than the current record.
The economic implications are spreading.
Currently, markets see the US government shutdown lasting until December 1st, per Polymarket.
This would mark a 61 day government shutdown, or 26 days LONGER than the current record.
The economic implications are spreading.
4
The last time the US government was shutdown, the S&P 500 was trading at ~3000.
It's now ~3,800 points HIGHER in the midst of the AI Revolution and a "Fed pivot."
With asset valuations at record highs, US government data has entered a "blackout."
This is a crucial point.
It's now ~3,800 points HIGHER in the midst of the AI Revolution and a "Fed pivot."
With asset valuations at record highs, US government data has entered a "blackout."
This is a crucial point.
5
The Fed is cutting rates into the "dark."
Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points due to a "weakening" labor market.
But, the Fed has no data. The last jobs report we received was August 2025.
The last datapoint showed underemployment at 8.1%, a 4-year high.
Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points due to a "weakening" labor market.
But, the Fed has no data. The last jobs report we received was August 2025.
The last datapoint showed underemployment at 8.1%, a 4-year high.
6
And, the implications of the shutdown are now spreading into day-to-day life.
The FAA said that ~50% of major air traffic control facilities are short-staffed.
Nearly 90% of controllers are out at New York–area facilities.
Many airports are completely cancelling flights.
The FAA said that ~50% of major air traffic control facilities are short-staffed.
Nearly 90% of controllers are out at New York–area facilities.
Many airports are completely cancelling flights.
7
Since October 1st, 3.2 MILLION US airline passengers have been impacted by delays or cancellations.
With the shutdown expected to last through Thanksgiving, ~3.5 million delays/cancellations are expected in Thanksgiving week.
Disruptions may exceed 10 million by December 1st.
With the shutdown expected to last through Thanksgiving, ~3.5 million delays/cancellations are expected in Thanksgiving week.
Disruptions may exceed 10 million by December 1st.
8
Since the shutdown began, federal unemployment claims have skyrocketed.
The number of federal employees filing for unemployment has jumped +1,200% since the shutdown began on October 1st.
This officially marks the highest number of federal unemployment claims since 2018.
The number of federal employees filing for unemployment has jumped +1,200% since the shutdown began on October 1st.
This officially marks the highest number of federal unemployment claims since 2018.
9
In a report provided to The Kobeissi Letter by the Congressional Budget Office, the shutdown will now:
1. Reduce Q4 GDP by up to 200 bps
2. Erase -$39B from economy
3. Delay up to $48B worth of payments
4. Delay $23B in paychecks for Federal workers
The shutdown must end.
1. Reduce Q4 GDP by up to 200 bps
2. Erase -$39B from economy
3. Delay up to $48B worth of payments
4. Delay $23B in paychecks for Federal workers
The shutdown must end.
10
And, even as the government shuts down, borrowing is soaring.
Total US debt has risen $17 billion PER DAY since the shutdown began.
Even as the US brought in $30B+/month in tariff revenue, the FY2025 deficit was $1.8 TRILLION.
We could see $40 trillion in US debt in 2026.
Total US debt has risen $17 billion PER DAY since the shutdown began.
Even as the US brought in $30B+/month in tariff revenue, the FY2025 deficit was $1.8 TRILLION.
We could see $40 trillion in US debt in 2026.
11
Today, we are seeing volatility return as uncertainty rebounds.
The macroeconomy is shifting and stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable.
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The macroeconomy is shifting and stocks, commodities, bonds, and crypto are investable.
Want to receive our premium analysis?
Subscribe to access our premium analysis below:
thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe
12
Amid US debt downgrades, $2T+ deficits, and government shutdowns, the world is watching.
China's share of total foreign Treasury holdings fell to just 8%, the lowest in 22 YEARS.
We must fix the system.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
China's share of total foreign Treasury holdings fell to just 8%, the lowest in 22 YEARS.
We must fix the system.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
