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You drop a single GBU-57 into the mountain range, let's say the fins stabilise it and it comes in at an almost vertical angle for deepest penetration and proper bomb operation. Look at this test and notice how the soil "swallows" it, as though it was going through water.
But it stops at 8 meters and blows its 2.4 ton payload without finding a cavity. Well, you might say, you can just hit that same 'tunnel' and just keep "drilling" into the mountain using these limited number of bombs, until you reach Fordow at 800 meters.
Right away, anyone who isn't physically or numerically challenged will spot some impossibilities here: 1. A bomb with a diameter of 0.8 meter and a CEP of 5m is never going to strike the same spot twice. 2. The angle of penetration won't be the same, even for the same plane!
3. Gravity won't stop and the soil, rock, etc. will cover up the hole as quickly as an unconventional explosion could. 4. With only 20-30 priceless bombs to play with, and a penetration depth of 8 meters, and say a cratering damage equivalent to the same, you will reach only 480m
This means this was never the true purpose of the MOP. It cannot be used for such a stupid mission. So we have to conclude that the Whiteman AF base photograph release was a PSYOP and a particularly clever one dealing with compartmentalisation. I'm going to explain what it's for.
There is another payload that is very similar to the 342kg "booster" payload: The B61 Mod 11/12/13, coming in at between 320-350kg. A few dozen of the B61 Mod 13 have been built. Enough for every MOP in service. The B61 Mod 13 is an Earth Penetrating Weapon (bunker buster)!
The B61 Mod 13 was meant to retire the 1 Megaton B83-1 bomb. The B61 Mod 13 supposedly uses the same physics package as the Mod 7, but in theory, it can pack a much bigger punch (~1 kt/kg through to 6kt/kg ). Something like ~700kT is plausible -- we can't know until it blows.
The timing and urgency of this modification program is quite suspect. Gravity bombs are utterly useless except for enemies whose air defences have been largely destroyed. This even holds true for the GBU-57 even when carried by the B-2. The B61Mod13 is rated for very high g's!
Let's say, the B61-Mod 13 can be disassembled (removing its fins) and reassembled into the highly modular BLU-127 (GBU-57's case). What if the 2000 kg filling was instead filled with a shock absorbing material? It can be an inert elastomer rather than the AFX757 filing!
Then you have a bomb that can create a nuclear blast wave THROUGH the tunnel system presumably, past the blast walls, CRUSHING/suffocating everything inside the facility. In shallower targets, from the shockwave alone, crush it all. /End PS This is how Nasrallah was assassinated.
Addendum: What happens if the US fails? What happens if the Iranian "granite level" reinforced concrete survives this attack? What happens if Iran's air defenses hold? The US will be exposed for having used nuclear weapons inside Iran. Iran will retaliate, armageddon will begin.
