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Engels before and after. The overpressure was clearly coming from an elevated position. There is no target on the ground that could potentially create this kind of damage -- no "warehouse" or "weapons depot" to use as cover. Open and shut case. Nuclear attack. ☢️
No one can explain how all of that material combusted simultaneously and went into the air as one block either. We have some unclear video of what appeared to be a nuclear mushroom cloud and a Rayleigh Taylor instability. The sun behind this made me think there was a second much larger explosion initially.
Radius of complete disintegration is around 322 meters. Burst height of 120 meters (borrowing a figure from Toropets) gives me a yield estimate of 1kT, which is consistent with estimates other oomfies got from damage assessment and hold time.
Assuming the stealth cruise missile did not undergo any course deviation or complex manoeuvres from launch and maintained its heading, from the direction of the oblong crater, we can trace back its point of launch to Sumy oblast, at a range of about 800km.
The obvious candidate for this attack? The AGM-158 ER or XR, which has ranges of 1,000km and 1,600km respectively. These can be launched by F-16s!
