Prediction: Biden won't be the Democratic nominee. I don't have any recent inside information, which as I'll explain, is one reason I think so.

I'm not a Democratic insider but I know people who if not insiders themselves are definitely close friends with them. And those in a position to know what's going on have gone silent, which means they've been sworn to secrecy, which means a rebellion is happening.

And that in turn means Biden is unlikely to be the nominee. If a sitting president decides to run, "party discipline" (with the Republicans just as much as the Democrats) means everyone has to support him. But once there is open rebellion, it can't be turned back off.