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The smartest commodity analyst on the planet just said he’s a “bag holder” and still adding. Here’s why he’s right — and why even a ceasefire signed TODAY changes nothing for months. 🧵 <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/commodmkt/status/2065224889142022194" color="blue">x.com/commodmkt/stat…</a>
The U.S. SPR just hit 349.2 million barrels — approaching levels not seen since 1983. Combined commercial + SPR inventories have fallen ~90 million barrels from their recent peak, including a 16M bbl decline in a single week.  This is not a dip. This is structural depletion.
Here’s what the market is missing: The U.S. is running an exchange program — not outright sales. Market participants must repay released barrels from late 2026–2029 with an 18–24% premium in kind.  Translation: the U.S. government is a forced buyer at lower prices. Tank bottoms = mandatory replenishment demand.
Even if Hormuz opens tomorrow — nothing changes for months. The UAE’s state-owned oil company estimates full flows will not resume until 2027, even if a deal is reached quickly.  The EIA’s own June 2026 forecast assumes the strait remains effectively closed in the near term, with flows only slowly resuming in Q3 2026 — and pre-conflict traffic levels not expected until early 2027.
Right now: Over 800 vessels remain stranded inside the Gulf, creating a massive backlog, while insurers are still reviewing risk premiums.  Hundreds of tankers are still stuck in the Gulf waiting to exit — each VLCC carrying up to 2 million barrels.  The pipeline is empty. Refilling it takes months, not days.
Cumulative supply lost from the Hormuz closure: 📦 End of April → ~1.2 billion bbls 📦 End of May → ~1.59 billion bbls 📦 End of June → ~1.98 billion bbls OECD inventories are expected to fall to a low of just 50 days of demand cover by end of 2026 — the lowest since January 2003.  This is 4x larger than any supply outage in recorded history. There is no playbook for this.
So when Currie says “the market is missing 10mb/d” — he’s not being dramatic. He’s reading the physics. SPR at 40-year lows → forced replenishment demand 800+ tankers stuck → months of backlog Hormuz reopening → 2027 at full capacity Peace deals don’t move barrels. Time does. #Oil #Hormuz #SPR #Commodities #EnergyMarkets