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In 2020, COVID destroyed demand for oil. The world cut production by 9.7M b/d to absorb the shock. In 2026, Hormuz destroyed supply. But this time — nobody can cut demand by 15M b/d. That’s the problem. 🧵
COVID at its worst: — Demand collapsed ~20M b/d in April 2020 — OPEC+ cut production 9.7M b/d — largest cut in history — Oil went negative for the first time ever — Inventories filled to the brim The solution: cut production to match demand. Simple equation.
2026 Hormuz crisis: — Supply missing: 15–20M b/d — Global inventories down 255M bbls since Feb 27 — Drawing at 5.1M b/d and accelerating The only solution: destroy demand to match supply. But you can’t mandate lockdowns for an oil shortage.
In 2020 — governments told people to stay home. Demand collapsed overnight. In 2026 — governments would have to tell people to stop driving, stop heating, stop manufacturing. One was an emergency health response. The other is economic suicide.
In April 2020, oil traded at -$37. Producers were paying buyers to take their barrels. Too much supply. Zero demand. Tanks full. Flip that equation today: Not enough supply. Full demand. Tanks empty. If -$37 was the floor in 2020 — what’s the ceiling in 2026?
Mathematically, the mirror image of -$37 isn’t $200. It’s whatever price forces enough people to stop using oil. In 2020, governments forced that with lockdowns. In 2026, only price can do it. And that price — nobody knows.
Even if the Strait reopens late April — inventories still hit all-time lows. The buffer is gone. There’s no version of this that doesn’t hurt.
2020: too much oil, nowhere to put it. Price went negative. 2026: not enough oil, no way to get it. Same market. Opposite problem. One had a floor. The other has no ceiling.