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Given Trump’s Easter threats to carry out new war crimes in Iran, we should think one or two steps ahead about a coup attempt connected to the war. And then deter it. (1/17)
Why is Trump so enthusiastic about destroying Iranian civilian infrastructure? It won’t win the war. It is likely for another reason: to provoke an Iranian response that Trump can use for his own purposes. (2/17)
Provocation is not a complex form of politics. Let’s not imagine Trump is not smart enough to have thought of this. He is. And exploiting a wartime incident to try to seize total power is normal tyrannical behavior. It’s on us not to dodge that historical fact. (3/17)
So thinking one step ahead. The purpose of the new war crimes is likely to induce Iran to carry out a terrorist attack inside the United States. (4/17)
Then Trump can shift the focus from a lost war abroad to a crisis at home, and try to shift the armed forces to US cities. (5/17)
The fact that Hegseth is still secretary of defense points in the same direction. He has shown himself to be laughably unfit to run a foreign war. But he is a person — perhaps the only person around — who would be enthusiastic about a self-invasion. (6/17)
Again, if that seems odd to you, you are already inside the scenario, making it more likely. Trump is an admirer of Putin. This is exactly how Putin came to power: a terrorist attack in Russia that could be blamed on Muslims. (7/17)
Now think two steps ahead. Iran does not have to do anything. Trump and his accomplices could themselves stage an incident inside the US and blame Iran. The American war crimes would make the false flag seem plausible. (8/17)
Again, please resist the urge to dismiss this scenario. In Trump’s world this is absolutely normal politics. The 1999 terrorist attack that brought Putin to power was a false flag. The Russian secret services bombed apartment buildings and killed Russians. (9/17)
Whom else does Trump openly admire? Orbán. And right at this very moment Orbán is carrying out a false flag terrorist incident to stay in power. Facing elections he is bound to lose, he has claimed to have foiled a terrorist plot. (10/17)
These things only work when people choose to go along. If we deny that such a thing is possible we invite it. When we think it through and talk about it we deter it. (11/17)
There are many answers to self-terrorism: sketching out the scenario so others see it; preparing not to obey unlawful orders; preparing as a journalist only to write what you know rather than what the president says; (12/17)
(Continuing the many answers to self-terrorism): preparing as lawyers and judges to prosecute coup plotters for their crimes; preparing as citizens to protest. (13/17)
Trump is in a very weak position, and a terrorist incident would be a desperate move. But it will work if we sleepwalk, look away, and let it happen. (14/17)
Neutrality is not possible here. Either we deny such things are possible (as they unfold!) and become silent accomplices, or we lean forward, keep our eyes open, and prepare to act. (15/17)
Prepare to take action on May First. Protests show awareness and they deter the worst. (16/17) <a target="_blank" href="https://indivisible.org/events/may-day-strong-no-work-no-school-no-shopping/" color="blue">indivisible.org/events/may-day…</a>
A longer version of this argument with more historical detail is on my substack under the title “The Next Coup Attempt.” (17/17) <a target="_blank" href="https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-next-coup-attempt" color="blue">snyder.substack.com/p/the-next-cou…</a>