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1/ Russia should take advantage of the Iran war by launching a massive war-winning offensive to capture Kyiv and Odesa, says a prominent Russian warblogger. The conditions he identifies for Russia doing so, however, are so onerous that they are practically impossible to meet. ⬇️
2/ Alexey Zhivov asks: "How is victory possible in the Special Military Operation? After the capture of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and the battle for Kupiansk, any significant news about the advancement of the Russian Armed Forces has ceased to come from the front."
3/ "All military action was reduced to an exchange of missile and drone strikes and [Kremlin spokesman Dmitry] Peskov's inappropriate statements about our great "concern" for the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government."
4/ "How could the SMO end on terms acceptable to us? 1. As a result of Kyiv completely expending money and personnel on defence (not in sight) and the allies refusing to support Kiev (not in sight); 2. As a result of a political compromise with Western countries (not in sight);
5/ "3. As a result of Kyiv's military defeat. This defeat can only be measured in one way: the liberation of Kyiv and Odesa. The only viable option for us is the third.
6/ "But I started by saying that there is no significant news from the front, just as there is no news about the expansion of the buffer zone or the creation of a threat to Kharkiv. Moreover, the liberation of Odesa currently seems an unattainable goal.
7/ "To successfully capture Kyiv, Russia must form, equip, and train an army group of 150,000 to 300,000 men, deep in the rear, in complete safety. And these must not be fighters hastily armed with outdated weapons.
8/ "They must be a fusion of veterans of the SMO, unmanned forces, long-range artillery, and properly trained assault infantry.
9/ "A fresh, well-equipped army, linked to digital control and competent command, will have to attack with lightning speed from the north, crushing any defensive lines. This means armored vehicles, columns, and large numbers of personnel on the march. A difficult task.
10/ "The principles of effective combat operations by individual army and reconnaissance units have been formulated, tested, and have yielded results that have not yet been scaled up. Perhaps the time has come.
11/ "Breaking through the enemy's defences in the face of the total transparency of the line of contact will not be easy. Several feints and the strictest secrecy are necessary, which we also have problems with.
12/ "Looking at [Tuesday's] raid on Ukraine, one might assume that several thousand Geran drones and various types of missiles could be stockpiled for such an offensive, so that as troops advance, they can demolish all enemy defences,…
13/ …[and] preclude the possibility of a rapid troop transfer from other fronts to Kyiv, etc.
14/ "Such a large-scale operation requires political will and the determination to at least once abandon a conservative conflict strategy in favor of justified risk. So far, no one is ready for this.
15/ "Partly because various negotiators constantly convince decision-makers that they can reach an agreement anyway. And so it goes, year after year.
16/ "The longer we delay a final resolution to the Ukrainian issue, the further the Ukrainian Armed Forces' drones and missiles fly, the more public fatigue grows with the permanent war,…
17/ …which has begun to acquire an extremely unpleasant internal dimension in the form of a series of bans, social tension, and a general deterioration of living conditions.
18/ "To finish people off, all that remains is to invent a new pandemic, force people to wear masks, and confine their exits to some liquid in a syringe.
19/ "Russia is currently in a particularly advantageous position due to the conflict over Iran. Not seizing this opportunity would be a grave mistake.
20/ "Iran, on the contrary, has made it clear what it must do to be taken into account, and this at disproportionately high risks and losses for Tehran.