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What don't people know about the war in Iran? 🧵
The ongoing U.S.-Israel war with Iran (now in its fourth week) highlights Carl von Clausewitz's timeless insight: "War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty."
Today, open-source intelligence such as satellite imagery, social media reports, and frequent public statements creates an illusion of clarity. People track key leaders killed, rocket and missile launches, interceptions, reported hits, the number of ships struck in the Strait of Hormuz, and even the number of vessels the pass through it or Iran gets out of it daily.
People seem to know a lot. But let's talk about what we don't know...such as: Who's truly in charge in Tehran? With top leadership losses in the political, IRGC, military, Basij, others and uncertainty over successors, is the regime unified or fracturing?
Iran's Internal dynamics: Persistent internet blackouts hide public sentiment, protest levels, or active resistance networks. Are defectors real and being cultivated by U.S./Israel? Back-channel contacts with military/government insiders?
What's left of Iran's arsenal: missile stocks, missile launchers, drones, nuclear centrifuges? Enriched uranium? Satellite photos of trucks at sites fueled speculation (was the uranium moved? Buried under rubble?), but all confirmation is absent.
Strait of Hormuz reality: Beyond reported strikes on tankers and loitering vessels, how many vessels have passed through, or what oil Iran is being allowed to get out. How close is it to full reopening or total closure? Iran capabilities to influence the area from fast boats, mines, drones?
Next steps: What are U.S./Israel's priority targets? Next major bombing day? Cyber operations? Which senior Iranian figures are currently tracked for elimination? NATO and other country plans?
Many of these questions we should NOT know. Operational security, deception, keeping the enemy in the dark are vital to our success. But in an age flooded with visible data, we rarely admit how much remains hidden in that deeper fog: command coherence, remaining capabilities, internal stability, covert defections, and true intentions. The three-quarters uncertainty Clausewitz described hasn't disappeared. It's just masked by pixels and feeds.
So, since we, unlike Iranians under a regime that enforces strict internet blackouts and information control, live in free societies with open press and access to diverse experts, we should actively discuss what we know. We can and should consult credible military analysts, think tanks, defense officials, and any on-the-ground reporting to understand the conflict's progress, requirements, and challenges. But even with all this transparency, we must acknowledge what we don't know and definitely question anyone who speaks with absolute certainty, as if the fog has fully lifted.