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Putin’s Energy Masterclass: Exploiting the Hormuz Crisis to Break the EU’s Resolve Vladimir Putin is threatening to cut remaining gas supplies to Europe at the exact moment when EU inventories are the most fragile in years. An honest masterclass in energy geopolitics. 🧵
Yesterday, speaking to Kremlin-aligned media, the Russian President alluded to the possibility of halting gas exports to the EU abruptly: "If they're going to shut us down in a month or two anyway, wouldn't it be better to stop now and go to countries that are reliable partners?
And establish ourselves there," he said. These comments refer to the EU plan to completely phase out natural gas imports from Russia, which currently arrive in Central and Eastern Europe through pipelines and as LNG in Northwestern Europe. Various EU Member States are still
dependent on Russian supplies, even though they rarely admit or discuss this vulnerability. Yet, this crisis is reaching a boiling point as a consequence of the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the “black swan” scenario of all energy markets
analysts. Deprived of Qatari LNG—which traditionally flows to Asia, the EU’s largest competitor in the global gas market—energy stakeholders and policymakers have been blindsided. This is apparently not the case for the man who has occupied the Kremlin for more than twenty years
and who launched the invasion of Ukraine right at the moment when the EU was weak and depleted of gas reserves. Is it merely a coincidence that the Russian invasion on Ukraine was launched on Feb. 24, 2022, while the U.S.-Israel strike on Iran was initiated on Feb. 28, 2026?
Again, I made this point a few days ago: I don’t think that energy geopolitics is built on coincidences. Putin’s statement serves various political objectives:
1 - It deliberately stokes uncertainty in the EU gas market, already roiled by volatile international geopolitical variables. 2 - It sends a message to his allies within the EU that he might be “forced” to cut supplies.
3 - It signals to the world that Russia—amid energy chaos now sowed by the Kremlin this time—is ready to provide energy security to alternative partners. In the meantime, the EU gas security is flying without instruments…
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