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A must-read assessment of the current state of the war by General Hennadiy Shapovalov, Commander of the Ground Forces of Ukraine: Modern warfare is defined by constant adaptation. 1/15
The most difficult challenge has been the need for continuous adjustment to changes in both enemy and friendly tactics, as success now depends on the ability to evolve faster than the opponent. 2/15
While experience gained since 2014 remained relevant in the early stages of the full-scale invasion in 2022, today combat operations, command-and-control methods, and the employment of forces and assets have undergone a profound transformation. 3/15
The modern battlefield imposes continuously changing requirements, to which forces must adapt without interruption. One of the most significant shifts has been the move away from large, cohesive formations operating at the platoon, company, battalion, or brigade level. 4/15
Instead, small-unit tactics now dominate, with 2 and 3 person teams operating at high speed and using light motorized vehicles such as quad bikes, motorcycles—including electric models—and scooters. This approach significantly increases mobility and flexibility. 5/15
The use of armored vehicles has become far more constrained due to the widespread employment of unmanned systems. Drones have made it increasingly difficult to protect armored platforms, both for Ukrainian forces and for the adversary. 6/15
As a result, approaches to conducting combat operations have changed substantially and continue to evolve. In several sectors of the front, the introduction of new approaches and technologies has made it possible to alter the operational situation and regain the initiative. 7/15
This is largely due to the extensive and integrated use of various unmanned systems, including fiber-optic drones, which are particularly difficult to counter. The rapid development of EW and electronic intelligence capabilities has further enhanced their effectiveness. 8/15
The combined use of these technologies has repeatedly forced the adversary to lose momentum and adjust plans and objectives during ongoing operations. 9/15
This, in turn, has enabled more effective mission execution, improved the ability to hold or enhance positions, reduced losses, and increased the overall effectiveness of strikes against enemy forces. 10/15
Over the past six months, it has become evident that the modern battlefield leaves little room for “yesterday’s” solutions. Methods that proved effective even recently no longer deliver consistent results. The speed of decision-making has therefore become a decisive factor. 11/15
Combat operations are now conducted in an environment where time for extended analysis is largely absent. Decisions must often be taken immediately, sometimes grounded in prior experience, sometimes in intuition. 12/15
Commanders and individual soldiers rarely possess a complete and up-to-date picture of the situation or the opportunity to fully assess all risks. Rapid decision-making is required at every level, from senior command to the smallest tactical element. 13/15
This operating environment is inherently high-risk, especially as the adversary is also continuously learning and adapting. Ukrainian forces face a regular opponent with superior resources, broader mobilization potential, and a more extensive material base. 14/15
Under these conditions, maintaining effectiveness depends on the continuous development and application of asymmetric solutions capable of compensating for the enemy’s advantages in manpower and resources. 15/15
Read General Shapovalov’s full assessment of the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war on my Substack - Russia Analyzed - <a target="_blank" href="http://shorturl.at/LOJdm" color="blue">shorturl.at/LOJdm</a>
