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I have been to Ukraine every year since 2011. I warned that war was coming in late 2021 and early 2021 and when it came I warned that Ukraine could not hope to win a protracted conflict. No doubt busy people cannot read all that I write, but here are the key pieces. 1/10
"Putin’s Ukrainian War Is About Making Vladimir Great Again. Current conditions are ideal for a Russian invasion, but the historical inspiration is more tsarist than soviet." (Jan. 2, 2022) 2/10 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-02/niall-ferguson-biden-eu-nato-won-t-stop-putin-s-ukraine-invasion?sref=ojq9DljU" color="blue">bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…</a>
"The Fates of Ukraine and Putin Turn on 7 Forces of History. Does Russia grind out victory? Can sanctions stop that? Might Putin go nuclear? Is China for war or peace? The past offers clues, but no certain answers." (March 9, 2022) 3/10 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-09/niall-ferguson-ukraine-invasion-struggles-could-be-the-end-for-putin?sref=ojq9DljU" color="blue">bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…</a>
"Ukraine’s Army Is Winning But Its Economy Is Losing. The US has been generous with military and financial aid, the Europeans less so. But both must step up the effort to keep Kyiv fighting." (Sept. 13, 2022) 4/10 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-09-13/niall-ferguson-ukraine-s-army-is-winning-but-its-economy-is-losing?sref=ojq9DljU" color="blue">bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…</a>
"The West's Patience Is Running Shorter Than Ukraine's War. US support is starting to waver, and while European governments are stepping up, their citizens are losing faith." (Sept. 24, 2023) 5/10 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-09-24/ukraine-offensive-against-russia-is-too-slow-for-us-uk-and-eu" color="blue">bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…</a>
"Germany, Rearm! There might be something scarier than German power. That’s German weakness in this dangerous moment for Europe—and the free world." (Sept. 24, 2024) 6/10 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thefp.com/p/niall-ferguson-germany-rearm-ukraine-russia-nato" color="blue">thefp.com/p/niall-fergus…</a>
"I’ve Seen the Future of War. Europe Isn’t Ready for It." (Sept. 24, 2025) 7/10 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.thefp.com/p/niall-ferguson-ive-seen-the-future" color="blue">thefp.com/p/niall-fergus…</a>
I consistently urged the Biden administration not to protract the war with an under-powered counteroffensive in 2023 but to seek to end it when Ukraine's position was at its strongest in late 2022 / early 2023. 8/10
I have consistently urged the European governments, especially Germany, to rearm more rapidly and to support Ukraine with modern weapons rather than fine words. 9/10
And I continue to urge the Trump administration, as I have since January, to seek peace through strength. Only increased military pressure on Moscow (e.g., Ukrainian deep strikes) has created the current possibility for a compromise peace. But more economic pressure is also needed. 10/10