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Chinese investment has stalled out in the third quarter. Real estate investment continues to fall, and infrastructure and manufacturing investment have stopped growing .... with one notable exception: autos 1/
Autos are an interesting sector for the global economy because the incremental Chinese production since 2018 has basically come from exports -- the domestic market has been around 25m cars for a while 2/
Vehicle exports will top 7.5m cars/ tracks this year -- and are on trajectory to reach 8-9m next year (massive scale) ... with a strong contribution from EVs and pug in hybrids in 2025 3/
ICEs and EVs/ NEVs are basically splitting the domestic market (ICE sales have stabilized at around 12m cars), which means a lot of China's 20-25m in EV production capacity is available for export 4/
The swing in China's net exports of autos is massive -- and so big that it should on its own lead the IMF to question its view that China's external surplus is only modest in size and not a major global policy concern ... 5/
And China's auto imports have basically fallen in 1/2 since 2021, and will be down to 0.5m cars this year (tiny v a domestic market of 25m cars). This chart alone explains much of Germany's current malaise ... 6/
Personally don't see how more balance can be brought into global trade by adjusting sectoral Chinese policies alone (China isn't going to stop adding auto export capacity ... ) But I gather @IMFNews isn't convinced (yet) that the exchange rate needs to play a role 7/7
