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Are you paying attention? Bitcoin is now up +55% since its April 2025 low, hitting a RECORD $115,000. Meanwhile, the US Dollar just had its WORST start to a year since 1973, falling nearly -11% in 6 months. This is not a coincidence. Let us explain. (a thread)
Heading into April 2025, Bitcoin was moving in a straight-line lower on trade war fears. On April 9th, tariffs were delayed for 90 days and Bitcoin bottomed. On April 20th, the real rally began, without any major news, days after the delay. So, what really happened here?
It's clear that the story for crypto has become much more than just being a decentralized currency. Rather, it has become the hedge (along with gold) against the biggest crisis in the US: Deficit spending. Crypto and gold are telling a clear story: the crisis worsening.
Take a look at the date on this article, when @ElonMusk said he was stepping away from DOGE. This aligns PERFECTLY with the sudden rally in Bitcoin, which began on April 20, and continues today. Elon stepping away from DOGE was the first sign of how bad this crisis truly is.
This was followed by the public feud between Elon Musk and Trump. As the market began pricing-in the passing of President Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill," Bitcoin surged. This bill is projected to add up to $5.5 TRILLION to US Debt if made permeant. Bitcoin knows this.
In fact, just take a look at the timeline we created below. On June 22nd, Bitcoin fell into $100,000 support. On July 1st, odds of OBBB passing rise, on July 3rd the US House passes OBBB, on July 4th Trump signs it into law. Today, we have Bitcoin at a record $115,000.
Below are some alerts we posted for our premium members since April. We bought the dip into $80,000, $90,000, $100,000 and called for $115,000. Today, our target was hit for over +$30,000 since April 2025. Subscribe below to access our alerts: <a target="_blank" href="http://thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe" color="blue">thekobeissiletter.com/subscribe</a>
Meanwhile, the USD is trading at its lowest since March 2022. The USD fell -10.8% in the first half of 2025, its worst start to a year since 1973. Not even 1986, amid severe inflation, saw the US Dollar fall like it is now. And, here's where it gets even more interesting.
Even as President Trump sends out "tariff letters" and ramps up the trade war, the USD is falling. This is the exact OPPOSITE reaction that we saw heading into April 2025. Historically speaking, a US-driven trade war should strengthen the US Dollar, not weaken it.
And, the Fed has shifted hawkish with a "wait and see" approach. Today's Fed Minutes showed that multiple policymakers see zero interest rate cuts in 2025. This should also strengthen the US Dollar as higher for longer policy returns. But, the exact opposite is happening.
Furthermore, as we have said for 5+ years, the US simply cannot survive on its current fiscal path. The debt ceiling was just raised by $5 trillion, to $41.1 trillion, and we are nearing $37 trillion now. We think the $41.1 trillion debt ceiling will be hit in under 3 years.
The icing on the cake? As @ElonMusk forms the new "America Party" he has commented on Bitcoin. Elon Musk was asked if the "America Party" embrace Bitcoin. Musk responds "Fiat is hopeless, so yes." He knows we are on an unsustainable fiscal path.
The reality is that the market knows what's next. The market has known for a long time, as both gold and Bitcoin have surged over +100% since 2021. There is no end in sight for the US deficit spending crisis. Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
