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In-Depth Analysis of Israel’s Strategic Blow to Iran’s Missile Capabilities. A Mega Thread 🧵 Operation "Rising Lion" had two goals: stopping a nuclear breakout and neutralizing the ballistic missile threat posed by Iran. This analysis will focus on the latter: <<<
For more than three decades, Iran has invested heavily in developing one of the most extensive missile programs in the Middle East. Its arsenal comprises thousands of ballistic missiles of varying ranges, cruise missiles, and covert launch systems—stored within a vast network <<<
of underground “missile cities.” These fortified complexes are embedded deep within Iran’s mountainous terrain. Iran’s missiles were not merely a defensive deterrent; they have also served as strategic tools of regional influence, regularly transferred to Hezbollah, Iraqi <<<
militias, the Houthis in Yemen, and other allied proxies. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the IRGC Aerospace Force, eliminated in the operation’s preemptive strike, had long boasted of Iran’s missile capabilities: “There are very few cities in Iran without a missile depot. <<<
Our missile cities lie 500 meters underground. We have so many that, if revealed, no enemy would be able to contend with them.” Operation “Rising Lion” demonstrated that sustained air superiority can significantly degrade the effectiveness of this missile force <<<
ultimately undermining its role as a viable strategic threat. This analysis will examine the current state of the Islamic Republic's missile bases. In addition, we will also touch on several facilities from the missile production line that were targeted during the operation. <<<
1. Tabriz North Missile Base One of Iran’s largest missile bases, located in the northwest and posing a strategic threat due to its proximity to Israel. It was among the first targets hit. Most of the base's infrastructure was destroyed. <<<
2. Tabriz South Missile Base Includes a central missile erection structure, one storage tunnel, an air defense battery, and two fixed launchers. The vast majority of the base’s infrastructure was struck and destroyed. <<<
3. Kermanshah Missile Base One of Iran’s largest missile bases. It was expanding its missile stockpile with new tunnels. The IAF destroyed key infrastructure, including two active storage tunnel entrances, missile erection structures, and command centers. <<<
4. Kamijeh Missile Base A relatively small base, featuring a dual-entrance storage tunnel protected by ~100 meters of rock. South of it lies another facility with an unknown function, also containing a storage tunnel. All base infrastructure was targeted and destroyed. <<<
5. Kermanshah North Missile Base Part of a large military complex with four tunnel entrances—either one large tunnel or two separate ones under the same ridge. At the southern section, all above ground infrastructure including tunnel entrances, were struck. <<<
6. Ghazanchi Missile Base A very small base used primarily for staging missile launchers ahead of launches, subordinate to Kermanshah HQ. The launcher staging area was targeted in the strike. <<<
7. Kangavar Missile Base A relatively small base with a central high-bay hangar and support infrastructure. A new storage tunnel was recently built nearby to protect the base’s missile stockpile. All base infrastructure was targeted and destroyed. <<<
8. Khormabad Missile Base One of the largest bases in western Iran, located within the "Imam Ali" military compound west of the city of Khorramabad. The base consists of several tunnel complexes: a. In the northwest section, there is a massive tunnel with three portals. <<<
b. In the SW, there is a launch tunnel, for underground silos. c. In the NE, a tunnel with three portals is under construction. d. An another single portal tunnel. All high-bay hangars, tunnel entrances, and command buildings were struck. <<<
9. Borujerd Missile Base A relatively small base with no storage tunnel. Around 10 fixed container-style launchers were added in 2024, alongside rail-based launchers. All fixed launchers and the high-bay hangar were destroyed. <<<
10. Dezful Missile Base The base includes two tunnel complexes: the northern with three entrances, and the southern with two. Two administrative buildings were bombed, along with at least two portals of the northern tunnel. No strikes were observed on the southern portals. <<<
11. Zanjan Missile Base Identified based on local media reports. The base features classic missile infrastructure: a high-bay hangar, underground complex for protecting mobile launchers, administrative buildings, and more. All infrastructure was targeted and destroyed. <<<
12. Abhar Missile Base A small missile base near the city of Abhar, not far from the Qazvin–Zanjan highway. Many components were destroyed, including missile storage hangars. Nearby, a storage tunnel is under excavation. <<<
13. Eshtehard Missile Base Following reports of strikes in the Eshtehard area, a scan of the vicinity revealed what appears to be a small missile base with a double portal storage tunnel. All components of the base were targeted and destroyed. <<<
