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Morgan Stanley just released a fantastic 52 page deck on the state of markets and their asset allocation framework for June 2025 Some charts that caught my eye 🧵 1/ Indicators have recently diverged between actual economic activity and sentiment
2/ Tariffs currently trending towards de-escalation...
3/ ...leading to more risk-on behavior in markets
4/ Public sector employment has exploded since 2022 and the private sector has not kept up
5/ Global bond yields are currently on the rise
6/ Muni over treasury yield ratios have moved higher since the end of last year
7/ European HY currently offering the highest yield across the bond market on a currency hedged basis
8/ Reserve bank of India recently shifted towards easing of financial conditions, which has historically been a positive for their stock market
9/ Floating rate loans have a negative 10yr correlation to US treasuries
10/ The real estate market has started to stabilize
11/ Asset allocation and positioning framework, according to Morgan Stanley
12/ Fixed income positioning framework, according to Morgan Stanley
13/ Equities positioning framework, according to Morgan Stanley
14/ Bond yields across developed and emerging markets
15/ Central bank policy rates, current vs 1m ago and 12m ago
16/ Treasury yields and performance
17/ Spreads across fixed income instruments
18/ Corporate bond market performance
19/ Default rates across HY corporate and loans
20/ Muni bond market update
