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Michael Burry just shorted this stock with 49% of his portfolio This is a BIG move, buckle up. A thread 🧵
2/ Michael Burry just made his biggest move of Q1 2025: Shorting 900,000 shares of Nvidia through put options That’s almost 50% of his entire portfolio betting against one of the largest US company
3/ For context, Nvidia now makes up 6.5% of the S&P 500 And has been one of the biggest drivers of the market over the past 2 years Just in the last month, it rallied another 20% So is Burry seeing something the rest of the market is missing?
4/ Zooming out, Nvidia’s still one of the most explosive stories in the market It’s up 960% from Jan 2023 to its peak in Jan 2025 But earlier this year, the stock began to decline And 2 major concerns were behind the move
5/ First, DeepSeek, a new large language model, claimed better performance at lower cost, without needing Nvidia chips Second, the US banned Nvidia’s top AI chips from being exported to China These fears drove 40%+ correction in the stock
6/ Nvidia has since recovered most of those losses, but the concerns haven’t gone away They could still weigh on future sales And that’s likely why Burry made his move So should we be following his lead on this Nvidia short?
7/ Just a reminder to take advantage of the 30% DISCOUNT So far in Q2 2025, we’ve closed 17 winning trades avg. 27.5% profit and only 11 losses avg. 7% That’s a big outperformance compared to the flat S&P 500 View our track record for FREE at: <a target="_blank" href="https://bit.ly/BravosResearch" color="blue">bit.ly/BravosResearch</a>
8/ Now let’s look at the data The lines in the chart below shows Nvidia’s sales vs. capital expenditures from Amazon, Google, and Microsoft - the top 3 cloud providers The correlation is crystal clear
9/ The capital expenditure surge has been the key driver behind Nvidia’s 941% earnings growth over the last 2 years
10/ All of this earnings growth is coming from a few tech giants allocating huge capital into AI infrastructure And this is translating into strong demand for NVIDIA's data center products Which are essential for AI training
11/ So it makes sense that investors get nervous when new models like DeepSeek suggest AI no longer requires larger models and more computing power If true, this could threaten Nvidia's earnings But we believe these fears are overblown AI-related capital expenditures is still running at record highs
12/ In fact, spending is ramping up further In 2025, Amazon plans to spend $100 billion, Microsoft $80 billion, and Alphabet $75 billion Almost all of it is likely to be focused on AI and cloud infrastructure
13/ And about 50 analysts project that AI infrastructure spending will keep growing through 2028 So if DeepSeek isn’t a real threat to capital expenditure, what about the export ban of Nvidia's chips to China?
14/ After all, China makes up 12% of Nvidia’s revenue The new export rules could wipe out $15B in sales and add a $5.5B inventory charge That’s not a small hit But it’s not Nvidia’s first time dealing with such a situation
15/ Back in Oct 2023, a similar ban hit Nvidia The company responded by designing a scale down compliant chip for China And that helped limit the damage Today, they’re doing the same thing again
16/ Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO, just confirmed a newly designed chip for China, set to ship in the upcoming quarter In fact, Nvidia’s stock is also showing similar behavior to what it did back in 2023 The stock really just consolidated for months before rallying again on strong earnings
17/ On top of that, Nvidia just secured a billion-dollar deal to supply hundreds of thousands of chips to Humain, an AI startup owned by Saudi Arabia's Kingdom Investment Fund That could completely offset the China impact
18/ With AI data center spending expected to hit $1 trillion by 2029, we’ve been bullish on semiconductors We see this moment as similar to the early 2000s for software And Nvidia is still positioned as a top player to take advantage of this structural trend
19/ So why is Michael Burry betting the other way? Before jumping to conclusions, remember, 13F filings are delayed They only show he held that short position as of March 31, 2025 We don’t know what he’s doing today
20/ Here’s where Nvidia traded on March 31 - right before Trump’s tariff announcement That news did spark another 15% drop in the following week It’s very possible Burry closed his short during that panic
