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Lamar Jackson's 2025: #1 in EPA/att... ...throwing outside the numbers ...throwing when outside the pocket ...early downs without play action ...throwing when kept clean ...vs all zone coverage ...vs 2-high ...in the 4th quarter ...when passing within 2.5 seconds ...inside the red zone top 5... ...throwing between the numbers ...all short and intermediate attempts ...when pressured ...throwing inside the pocket ...third and fourth downs ...throwing with play action
writing about Lamar today for the Ravens chapter of my 2025 Preview book everyone who slams Lamar in the playoffs should be aware -> out of 19 QBs with 50+ att in the playoffs since 2021, Lamar ranks: #4 in YPA #6 in EPA/play #6 in completion rate #7 in success rate let's 🧵
Lamar's playoff YPA (#4) is higher than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott and Tom Brady, among others. Lamar's playoff EPA/play (#6) is higher than Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert and Brock Purdy, among others.
But here's context you should be aware of: Lamar faces the NFL's #1 highest rate of blitzes of any QB in the playoffs (53%). The NFL average in the playoffs is 26% blitz, less than half what Lamar is blitzed. For context, Joe Burrow is blitzed on 15% of dropbacks.
if the NFL average is NOT being blitzed on 74% of dropbacks... when looking at all 19 playoff QBs in this sample (since 2021) when NOT being blitzed, Lamar Jackson ranks: #1 in EPA/pass (+0.40) #1 in success rate (55%) #1 in YPA (9.7)
more context you should be aware of: Lamar faces the highest rate of man coverage of any QB in the playoffs (50%). The NFL average in the playoffs is 27% man coverage, almost half what Lamar faces. For context, Josh Allen faces man coverage on just 17% of dropbacks.
if the NFL average is facing ZONE coverage on 73% of dropbacks... when lookin at all 19 playoff QBs in this sample (since 2021) when facing ZONE, Lamar Jackson ranks: #1 in EPA/pass (+0.35) #1 in success rate (55%) #1 in YPA (10.6)
at the #1 highest rate in the NFL, Lamar Jackson deals with blitzes (53% of att, NFL avg 26%) and man coverage (50% of att, NFL avg 27%) but Lamar Jackson ranks #1 IN THE PLAYOFFS statistically vs what QBs face most of the time: zone coverage without blitzes
Combining the two, NFL-wide in the playoffs, QBs face man-blitzes on only 12% dropbacks Patrick Mahomes is also at 12% (66 out of 530 playoff dropbacks since 2021) Lamar Jackson faces man-blitzes at OVER three times that rate (37% of dropbacks)
let's look at some Lamar splits from the Ravens playoff game vs the Bills last year: zone, no blitz: 14 att, +1.06 EPA/att, 64% success, 12.2 YPA zone, blitz: 2 att, -0.14 EPA/att*, 50% success, 29.0 YPA man, no blitz: 3 att, +1.84 EPA/att, 75% success, 17.3 YPA man, blitz: 10 att, -0.38 EPA/att, 10% success, 2.4 YPA <-- *this was the Mark Andrews fumble Lamar DOMINATED vs everything BUT man blitzes only 1-of-10 attempts was successful vs the Bills man blitzes
the Ravens must devote a large portion of this offseason to solve for man blitzes on Lamar Jackson he's statistically the #1 best QB in all other situations no QB sees more man blitzes than Lamar the Ravens should know by now to expect it they need to be better prepared schematically to punish teams that try it if the Ravens figure out not just how to survive, but to thrive vs man blitzes, defenses will be more apprehensive about dialing it up
I go into more greater detail in my 2025 Preview Book if you like this type of analysis and want to see it for all 32 teams, analyzing their performance last year, expectations for 2025 and much more, you might be interested in my 2025 Preview Book: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/warren-sharp-book-2025-football-preview/" color="blue">sharpfootballanalysis.com/warren-sharp-b…</a>