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The logic of expansion candles... a small wick and a large body. the further price trades away from its opening price, the larger the wick becomes, thus decreasing the probability of an expansion candle. why? expansion candles have a small wick. with candlesticks telling us two things : range & time... If a candle exhausts all its time forming the wick, this leaves no time for it to expand to create the body. If a candle exhausts all its range prior to your session, this leaves no range left to get onside. Not saying a large opposing run cant form a reversal and expand, but my targets are now limited to the daily open and overnight range.
once you realize this isn't just applied to the daily, its fractal... study h1 candles. or you can just believe in macros. your choice.