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🚨🇪🇺EU gas storage levels dropped below 40% 📉In just 17 days, Europe's storage levels decreased by 10%, reducing a critical security buffer. 📈With gas storage depleting at a fast level, natural gas becomes a heavily traded commodity. 🥶We still have one Winter month ahead 🧵 <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/Frank_Stones/status/1886394438022291863" color="blue">x.com/Frank_Stones/s…</a>
February 2025 will likely be remembered as one of the most senseless months in the history of European gas trading. Benchmark TTF front-month prices reached a two-years high on February 10th on high levels of gas usage for heating, higher consumption in power generation due to
lower renewables output. In the next two weeks, the🇺🇸US and🇷🇺Russia began a difficult, if not impossible, negotiation to end the conflict in🇺🇦Ukraine without involving the same Kyiv and🇪🇺🇬🇧European allies of Washington. Savvy political analysts know these negotiations will end up
in nothing without the direct involvement of Ukraine and, somehow, acknowledging the fact this is a European conflict in which the largest countries in Europe have a say. No matter what, markets believed these negotiations could be soon bringing back Russian gas to European
consumers. This meant a large drawdown of speculative positions by hedge funds, who bet on higher gas prices in Europe, and more volumes traded for commercial purposes. TTF front-month prices lost almost 30% in a matter of a few days. 📈Reality is pushing back up prices
An assessment of gas storage in major🇪🇺EU countries: 🇩🇪Germany 35.66%🚨 🇮🇹Italy 51.25% 🇫🇷France 23.26%🚨🚨 🇳🇱Netherlands 27.33%🚨🚨 🇭🇺Hungary 41.58% 🇦🇹Austria 50.44% 🇵🇱Poland 51.83% 🇧🇪Belgium 33.66%🚨 🇧🇬Bulgaria 38.61% 🇷🇴Romania 30.88%🚨 🇪🇸Spain 66.42% We are approaching a very
dangerous storage level and despite short-term certainties about weather forecasts, we don't know how cold March will be and so how much gas will be withdrawn. The only thing sure is that this Summer we will see higher competition between Europe and Asia for the same LNG cargoes