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$PEPE has changed many lives, after doing a 375,000x in just 21 days. But you can change yours too. Here's my full guide to finding meme coin gems (and trading them for crazy returns). 🧵
In this thread, I'll cover: • The basics of meme coin investing • How to find and research strong meme coins • The best meme coin buying strategy • How to know when to take profits (full method) Let's dive in. 👇
When you buy any token, you're buying it on the premise that someone will (in the future) want to buy it off you at a higher price. This is especially true for meme coins, as they rely more on psychological drivers as opposed to fundamentals.
This is known in economics as the "Castle-in-the-Air Theory", (popularised by economist John Maynard Keynes), whereby 'investors try to build a sort of castles in the air and think of the probable price rise in the future than estimating the intrinsic values'.
The goal is to beat the crowd by building positions before other investors start buying. But of course, this is a gamble, as meme coins have less fundamental drivers than your typical investment. Therefore, you have to treat meme coin investing as a gamble.
You can think of meme coins like the games at a casino, and the L1s like Ethereum + exchanges as the house. Remember, the house always wins. We've already seen this reflected in the significantly increased $ETH burn over the last week. More on chain activity = more $ETH burnt.
But here's the major difference between a meme coin and a casino game like Roulette. When you bet on a roulette spin, the house automatically has ~5.26% edge. But, when investing in meme coins, there are ways to tip the odds in your favour.
Now admittedly, it is harder to create an edge here vs other styles of trading. This is because there are so many unknown variables that can affect a meme coin's success. But there ARE some measures that you can take to improve your EV.
Here's a 5 step plan to find meme coins and increase your edge.👇
1. Monitor which coins are performing. Look at the top gainers section on a site like @DEXToolsApp, so that you can measure which memes are performing from a price perspective. You only want to invest in memes that are gaining momentum.
2. Verify that the token has a strong culture. Meme coins ONLY succeed if they have a strong community. In this sector, community trumps all other variables. The meme must be funny, entertaining, and easy to understand.
There are many ways to track a token's social performance: • Monitor social metrics on @LunarCrush • Determine whether the token is being talked about in social circles: Twitter, Telegram, Discord etc. • Is the token trending on Twitter, Google, DexTools or CoinGecko?
3. Research the fundamentals. Ask yourself: • Who is the team? Are they doxxed? If not, have they shown competence in terms of building hype? • What are the tokenomics like? Is there dilution to come/burning mechanisms?
In all honesty, when it comes to meme coins - these questions are less important than when researching a legit project. But it still counts to put in a bit of work to help create an edge.
One of the biggest headwinds in this sector are the constant rugs and exploits. Although you can't avoid this entirely - there are 2 methods I use to help avoid this: 1. Run a quick audit on @Token_Sniffer 2. Assess the distribution of wallets on @bubblemaps
4. Work out whether you want to follow the leader, or play the rotation game. The "leader" typically has a higher market cap, but is less risky. For example, $DOGE is the leader of the "Inu" coins. Now $PEPE is the leader of the "Frog" coins.
@_FabianHD asserted in a recent post that "the best play is usually to just go long the leader." I recommend reading the full explanation as to why in the tweet below.
New liquidity gravitates towards the leader first, then filters down into the smaller coins in that niche. When liquidity rotates within a specific sector, profits from the smaller coins often flow back into the leader. This typically makes the leader a better R/R play.
The second option is to try and play the rotation game, which involves investing in the smaller caps that emerge underneath a niche leader. This can result in some nice gains IF you get the timing rate, but for the reasons stated above - often times it's the inferior R/R play.
5. Follow the smart money. To find new meme coin opportunities, you can look at what the whales/others successful meme coin traders are buying.