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Read through Ark Invest's Big Ideas 2021 report. Here's a tweet and chart for each of the 15 ideas 🧵
1/ Deep learning to create $30T of market value by 2037 • Automated code writing • AI that "understands" language (GPT-3) • Big Tech spends billions on AI chips, everyone benefits
2/ Data centres will be totally transformed • Intel (which powers 90% of data centres) has fallen behind • Next-gen data centres/PCs will run on ARM standard • GPUs (workhorse for AI) hits run rate of $41B in 2030
3/ Virtual world revenue hits $390B by 2025 (>2x today) • Video game monetization shifting to in-app purchases • Games are 3rd places (people spend 90m a day gaming in 2025) • AR market (Snap, FB, Apple) set to explode • Cost of VR (visual immersion) plummeting
4/ Digital wallets are a $4.6T opportunity • In US, digital wallets surpassing bank account holders • Digital wallet CAC lower than banks • Fully featured digital wallet (ecomm, payments, insurance, credit, brokerage) worth $20k/user • 230m Americans x $20k/user = $4.6T
5/ Bitcoin increases by +$40k if S&P 500 companies put 1% of their balance sheet cash to BTC • Square, Tesla and Microstrategy set the precedent • If S&P 500 companies make 10% of balance sheet cash, BTC rises by +$400k
6/ Mainstreaming of BTC makes it worth up to $5T • BTC trading volume approaching large cap stocks • Institutions have options to access BTC (e.g., CME futures) • If institutional money (HNW, Pensions, SWF, Insurance) allocate 2.5%-6.5% to BTC, its price could rise $200k-500k
7/ EV sales will explode 20x: 2m (today) to 40m (2025) • Total like-for-like EV ownership fell below Toyota Camry in 2019 (the sticker price will do same by 2025) • "cell-to-vehicle" battery designs will increase volume density by 50% and further drop costs
8/ Automation adds 5% (~$1.2T) to US GDP in next 5yrs • Rate of automation in next 5yrs = past 25yrs • Industrial robot demands has hit an inflection point (willing to pay upfront cost for automation) • More automation = higher productivity = higher wages = lower prices
9/ Autonomous ride-hailing profits $1T per year by 2030 • Ride hailing already $150B industry • Improvements in AV make economics of robotaxis work • Cost per mile of personally owned vehicle plummeting ($1.70 on a horse, 1871 vs. $0.25 for AV, 2025)
10/ Drone drastically reduce transportation costs • Revenue by 2030: $275B (delivery), $50B (hardware sales), $12B (mapping) • With improvements in AI and batteries, drones to be cheaper than cars, trucks, bike courier
11/ Orbital space hit $370B annually • Global connectivity via satellites (provide internet for other 50% of population) • Hypersonic point-to-point travel (turn 10hr+ flights into 2-3hr flights) • Re-usable rocket prices dropping (= more satellites)
12/ 3D printing worth $120B by 2025 • Collapses time from design to production • Shifts power to designers • Reduces supply chain complexity • Penetration levels: 50% in prototypes (market potential = $12.5B), 4% in molds/tools ($30B), 1% in end-use parts ($490B)
13/ Next-gen DNA sequencing worth $25B in 2025 • Shift from short-read (SRS) to long-read DNA sequencing (LRS) powers genomics revolution • Bigger toolkit gives richer view into biology • Used to be trade-off between accuracy (SRS) to comprehensiveness (LRS). No more tradeoff
14/ Liquid Biopsies to avert 66k cancer deaths per year • ML-power DNA sequencing will allow liquid biopsies that can find cancer early (before solid tumor stage) • Multi-cancer screening prices dropping • Could prevent 66k deaths a year = 1.4m human life years
15/ TAM for oncology gene therapy rise 20x to $250B+ • This slide made no sense to me but here it is: "ARK Estimates That Allogeneic. Cells And Cellular Immunotherapies Could Create $250 Billion In Incremental Revenues."
16/ Follow @TrungTPhan for other hot business takes (and really dumb memes). Original Ark Doc: <a target="_blank" href="https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK%E2%80%93Invest_BigIdeas_2021.pdf" color="blue">research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Downlo…</a>