Nifty 50 SIP Returns (2005–2024): 6.7% CAGR

SIP Sales Pitch: Returns @ 12-15% CAGR. The Reality: Returns @ 6.7% CAGR in Nifty 50 SIP over the last 20 years. 9.65 crore active SIP contributing Indians should know the facts.

SIPs: Myth vs. Reality

a. Last week's JP Morgan report said SIPs are now the MF industry’s demand anchor, contributing 77% of equity MF & hybrid MF net inflows. Monthly SIP inflows in May 2026 were up 48% YoY.

b. Brokers sell SIPs showing a past track record of 12-15% CAGR annualized returns. In reality, the actual 20-year Nifty 50 SIP CAGR, pre-tax, pre-fees was only 6.68%. (Source: Peer-reviewed Arxiv study, 2005–2024, available online).

c. When a Mutual Fund reports "10-yr return of 15%", that 15% applies only to the investor who invested a lump sum 10 years ago and never touched it.

But the average SIP investor tops up during rallies and stops during declines. So, actual return (XIRR) is much lower in the real world.

d. In other words, the 15% return only works for the SIP investor who entered in a bear market, never panicked, never switched from one fund to another, invested through every crash, and held until the exact date the broker did his calculations for 15% CAGR.

Why Real-World Returns are Low?

a. A 2026 FundsIndia study published in the mainstream financial media analyzed Nifty 50 TRI (total return index) returns from 1999 to 2026.

b. If you invested a lump sump in Nifty 50 TRI in 1999 and remained invested till 2026 (YTD), you would earn 13.3% CAGR over 27 years.

c. But if you missed just 15 best trading days in the last 27 years, your portfolio lost 2/3rd of its value. (You only earned 8.8% CAGR).

If you missed 30 best days, your portfolio lost 85% of its value. (You earned 5.7% CAGR – lower than FD returns and not even beating inflation).

If you missed 50 best days, your portfolio lost 94% of its value. (You earned 2.3% CAGR over 27 years.)

d. 7 of the 10 best days occurred within two weeks of the 10 worst days. This means investors who panic during crashes usually miss the strongest rebounds.

For example, if you panicked and stopped SIP during Covid, you would have missed some of the “best trading days” in Nifty history that followed when market rebounded.

e. SIPs Destroy SIPs: SIPs are designed to gain from market corrections. At market lows, an SIP buys more units for the same amount (rupee-cost averaging).

But when there is a flood of SIP liquidity, market volatility is removed systematically. SIPs lose their natural advantage.

That’s why Charlie Munger says passive investing works best when relatively few people are doing it.

Where are Rich SIP Investors?

a. Anurag Singh @anuragsingh_as who has extensively written on the SIP “illusion” asked in a 2024 article in ET: “Why isn’t the previous generation rich if SIPs delivered such fantastic returns?”

b. When old SIPs keep closing and new SIPs keep opening, only the broker makes money. Even if investors switch from one fund to another, it still kills the compounding as soon as you stop one fund.

c. In 2024, Anurag said: “Small-cap SIPs jumped nearly 4X after FY21, and are currently 50% more than large-cap SIPs. (Large-cap money was switched to small-caps.) What kind of SIP education brokers are giving to investors?”

d. SIP Stoppage Ratio is a metric that tells how many SIPs are stopped or switched every month (and thereby lose the compounding effect). It is the ratio of SIPs discontinued to new SIPs started in a given month.

SIP Stoppage Ratio in early to mid 2024 ranged from 50% to 60%. Market was rising, and more SIP accounts were being opened at peak prices. Stoppages increased in 2025 as prices declined.

SIP Stoppage Ratio in 2026:

Jan: 74.8%
Feb: 75.6%
Mar: 101.06%
Apr: 101.1%
May: 95.5%

Stoppage ratio trend shows SIP investors follow this cycle:

Market Rises: Start SIPs

Market Falls: Stop SIPs

Market Recovers: Those who stopped miss the rebound.

Market Peaks: Those who stopped return to make new SIPs.

When there is deep pessimism in the markets, it is the worst time to stop SIPs. But human mind is not wired to handle extreme pain of loss. Most investors simply give up, cut their losses, and move on with their life.

Endquote

“If investing weren’t hard, everyone would be rich.” – Charlie Munger

@arabicatrader