Stocks and housing have never been this expensive relative to the U.S. economy.
Stock market value: 250% of GDP.
Housing value: 146% of GDP.
This is the first time in modern U.S. history both have simultaneously approached record valuations.
In 2000, it was mostly stocks.
In 2006, it was mostly housing.
Today, it's both.
1) Things get even crazier when you combine the two.
Stocks and housing are now worth 397% of U.S. GDP.
That's the highest combined valuation in modern U.S. history.
The long-run average is just 166% of GDP.
Stocks and housing are now worth 397% of U.S. GDP.
That's the highest combined valuation in modern U.S. history.
The long-run average is just 166% of GDP.
2) The disconnect started in the late 1990s, when the Federal Reserve, for the first time in modern history, began lowering interest rates to support asset prices.
Over the next three decades, stocks and housing started growing far faster than economic fundamentals.
Which helps explain why both markets now appear so detached from people's incomes.
Over the next three decades, stocks and housing started growing far faster than economic fundamentals.
Which helps explain why both markets now appear so detached from people's incomes.
3) Another interesting shift has taken place alongside this surge in asset prices.
Americans are saving less.
Many households now view their homes and investment portfolios as the buffer they'll rely on in an emergency.
The result is that the personal savings rate has fallen to just 2.6%, near a record low.
Americans are saving less.
Many households now view their homes and investment portfolios as the buffer they'll rely on in an emergency.
The result is that the personal savings rate has fallen to just 2.6%, near a record low.
4) Back in the 1970s, 80s, and 90s, Americans saved roughly 10% of their paycheck each month.
Today they save just 2.6%.
In the short term, that's good for consumer spending and economic growth.
But it also creates a more fragile economy, as household finances become increasingly dependent on asset prices staying high.
Today they save just 2.6%.
In the short term, that's good for consumer spending and economic growth.
But it also creates a more fragile economy, as household finances become increasingly dependent on asset prices staying high.
5) Either we've entered a new paradigm where the old rules no longer matter.
Where asset prices can permanently outgrow incomes and economic output.
Or we're looking at a situation that is ultimately unsustainable.
Which means we'll eventually need some combination of stronger economic growth and lower asset valuations.
Where asset prices can permanently outgrow incomes and economic output.
Or we're looking at a situation that is ultimately unsustainable.
Which means we'll eventually need some combination of stronger economic growth and lower asset valuations.
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