Let's start with the BofA semiconductor forecast in the chart above.
Bank of America models total semiconductor sales reaching $1.3 trillion in 2026, a 65% year over year jump and growing to $2 trillion by 2030.
But strip out the headline number and look at what is doing the work, it's memory.
Memory sales are forecast to grow 168% in 2026 alone, versus just 25% for core semis ex-memory meaning the entire semiconductor supercycle is essentially a memory supercycle, and it is being driven by one product.
That product is high-bandwidth memory, and BofA projects the HBM market to explode from $35 billion in 2025 to $168 billion by 2030, a 37% compound annual growth rate that makes it one of the fastest growing markets in the history of the semiconductor industry.
Now zoom into Micron specifically.
Micron's entire 2026 HBM output is already contracted under long-term supply agreements.
The company has locked in six major AI and cloud customers at fixed prices, meaning the revenue is largely booked.
And despite that, CEO Sanjay Mehrotra has said Micron can only fulfill 50% to two-thirds of what its key customers actually need in the near term.
The supply crunch is not expected to meaningfully ease until late 2027 at the earliest.
Management guided Q3 to $33.5 billion in revenue with 81% gross margins and if achieved, that single quarter would generate over $27 billion in gross profit.
Micron is ramping HBM4 at twice the speed of its HBM3E ramp, the first HBM4E chip is scheduled for introduction in 2027 and the company has committed approximately $200 billion in planned capacity expansion to meet what it describes as a historic memory supply crunch.
A company generating $130+ billion annualized revenue by 2027, with 80%+ gross margins, sold-out capacity, a 20%+ HBM market share in a $168 billion market, and a geopolitical moat as the only American HBM supplier and that is how you get to $4,000.
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