"You underwrite SpaceX the way you underwrite a venture capital investment."
His business school professor taught him a framework that has guided his entire career, it's people, opportunity, context, deal.
On all three of the first criteria, People, Opportunity, and Context Ackman's verdict was the same, SpaceX is one of one, and nothing else in the market comes close.
He even acknowledged feeling bad for Blue Origin before noting that their being so far behind is not harmful to SpaceX but rather a structural tailwind that leaves SpaceX with a near monopoly on low cost orbital access for years to come.
And at $1.75 trillion, the number SpaceX is actually targeting on June 12, the question is no longer whether this is the best business on earth, but what the present value math looks like when you extend it five years forward and stress test every assumption about Starlink, launch economics, and AI compute revenue.
He said that even Amazon is going to have to become a bigger SpaceX customer, because Blue Origin is so far behind that Amazon has no real alternative for low-cost orbital access.
He also said something that almost no one is giving enough weight heading into Thursday's listing: "Time has become increasingly valuable in the AI era. You lose a month, you lose a couple months today, and it means a lot."
The Colossus and Macro Hard facilities are compounding infrastructure assets where every month of operational delay means less contracted revenue, less negotiating leverage with customers like Google and Anthropic, and a progressively weaker moat against the hyperscalers who are now racing to build competing compute capacity.
Come join Milk Road Pro for our full SpaceX IPO breakdown, how we're stress-testing the Deal leg of Ackman's framework at $1.75 trillion, what our five-year revenue model actually looks like, and our full AI thesis.
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