NEW | 🇺🇸 The biggest military insider?
A cluster of accounts made $2.4M betting on US military action with a 98% win rate
No one spotted him before 🧵
2/ This case started with a bubble map
We looked at the market tied to the first US strike on Iran (Feb 28)
Every cluster had already been found on X, except the largest one
We looked at the market tied to the first US strike on Iran (Feb 28)
Every cluster had already been found on X, except the largest one
3/ We decided to look into this pink cluster
Those 4 connected accounts:
• were created days before the first US strikes on Iran (Feb 28)
• placed bets at low odds
• made ~$400k each
Those 4 connected accounts:
• were created days before the first US strikes on Iran (Feb 28)
• placed bets at low odds
• made ~$400k each
4/ Using timing and size analysis, we linked these 4 accounts to 5 others
9 accounts total:
• 98% win rate
• almost exclusively betting on US military markets
• routing funds through CEXs in tight time windows to a network of shared wallets (potential services)
9 accounts total:
• 98% win rate
• almost exclusively betting on US military markets
• routing funds through CEXs in tight time windows to a network of shared wallets (potential services)
5/ These 9 accounts have a history of suspicious activity
Major bets were placed:
• days before the Feb 28 surprise attack on Iran
• days before the elimination of Ayatollah Khamenei
• days before the US-Iran ceasefire agreement
Major bets were placed:
• days before the Feb 28 surprise attack on Iran
• days before the elimination of Ayatollah Khamenei
• days before the US-Iran ceasefire agreement
6/ These accounts showed strong conviction
They didn’t just bet on US strikes by Feb 28, but across multiple later dates to maximise profit
They also placed small losing bets on Feb 20, likely to avoid attention
They didn’t just bet on US strikes by Feb 28, but across multiple later dates to maximise profit
They also placed small losing bets on Feb 20, likely to avoid attention
7/ These 9 accounts heavily overlapped in their trades
They consistently dominated the top spots on the PnL leaderboards
Why go to such lengths to hide it?
They consistently dominated the top spots on the PnL leaderboards
Why go to such lengths to hide it?
8/ The evidence is overwhelming
• 9 connected accounts
• 98% win rate
• $2.4M+ in profit
• Focused on US military markets
• 9 connected accounts
• 98% win rate
• $2.4M+ in profit
• Focused on US military markets
9/ Notes:
• Huge thanks to Vee, whose investigative work was instrumental in uncovering these connections
• We have no evidence linking these accounts to any entity. But the connections and near perfect track record raise serious questions about who is behind them
• Huge thanks to Vee, whose investigative work was instrumental in uncovering these connections
• We have no evidence linking these accounts to any entity. But the connections and near perfect track record raise serious questions about who is behind them
10/ This was an exclusive investigation shared with @60Minutes
Check out the segments:
Check out the segments:
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@60Minutes 11/ Polymarket accounts:
polymarket.com/0x09d3273fa762…
polymarket.com/0x9ec7da81a2da…
polymarket.com/0x0c8bc7db08d5…
polymarket.com/0x607fec58640f…
polymarket.com/0x514550b8f94f…
polymarket.com/0xc09d4fad8d3b…
polymarket.com/0x340b374046d3…
polymarket.com/0x848921be10e5…
polymarket.com/0x50eb8c6b07e9…
polymarket.com/0x09d3273fa762…
polymarket.com/0x9ec7da81a2da…
polymarket.com/0x0c8bc7db08d5…
polymarket.com/0x607fec58640f…
polymarket.com/0x514550b8f94f…
polymarket.com/0xc09d4fad8d3b…
polymarket.com/0x340b374046d3…
polymarket.com/0x848921be10e5…
polymarket.com/0x50eb8c6b07e9…
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