1/ Russia is entering a full-scale debt crisis, according to newly published official figures. Non-payments have reached an all-time high equivalent to nearly 4% of GDP or a fifth of the entire federal budget. It's a fresh sign of a deepening economic crisis worsened by war. ⬇️
2/ Russian media is reporting today that data from Rosstat, the official statistics agency, says that as of the end of January 2026 unpaid business debt has reached a record 8.2 trillion rubles ($109.3 billion). Non-payments have nearly tripled since 2022.
3/ This is equivalent to about 20% of the annual federal budget, 150% of Moscow's budget, and 1500% of the budget of large and wealthy regions such as the Sverdlovsk Region and the Krasnodar Krai.
4/ Manufacturing and trade are suffering the worst. A third of the entire debt, 2.9 trillion rubles ($38 billion) is concentrated in manufacturing.
5/ In this one sector, debt has increased by a trillion rubles ($13.3 billion) in 2025 alone, while debt grew by 1.4 trillion ($18.6 million) in all other sectors combined during 2025.
6/ Trade accounts for another 1.9 trillion rubles of debt ($25.5 billion). The petroleum sector is suffering particularly badly, with a debt of 1.6 trillion rubles ($21.3 billion). Hydrocarbon processing sites have been particularly badly affected by Ukrainian drone strikes.
7/ Large state-owned companies are reported to be the worst offenders for non-payments. The crisis is attributed to a company of a decline in GDP, falling demand, and tax increases.
8/ Russian businesses have complained vociferously about the government's decision to raise VAT to 22% on 1 January 2026, revise insurance premiums, and reduce the VAT payment threshold for businesses operating under the simplified tax system (STS).
9/ These measures are attributed by independent commentators to the government's increasingly urgent need to fund the war in Ukraine. As of 2025, the war was estimated to be costing $2.7 billion per week, or nearly $200 billion for the entire year – around 7.3% of GDP. /end
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