New post w/ random thoughts on AI (thread)
I will probably get a # wrong, but here we go :)
1/12 OpenAI & Anthropic now at 0.1% of US GDP *each*
In a year, AI revenue likely to be 1-2% of US GDP
What does AI mean for US GDP growth? Does productivity get lost mismeasured a la internet era?
2/12 AI research community just had equivalent to IPO
Usually a company goes public, vs a class of people
Due to Meta pay packages + other labs matching, top N AI researchers had equivalent of IPO happen
How will this impact behavior in this cohort?
Usually a company goes public, vs a class of people
Due to Meta pay packages + other labs matching, top N AI researchers had equivalent of IPO happen
How will this impact behavior in this cohort?
3/12 Ceiling on compute available - does it re-enforce oligopoly market for models for now by limiting any single players growth?
When does ceiling come off? 2028? If so, does a single lab pull away then or still in stasis?
When does ceiling come off? 2028? If so, does a single lab pull away then or still in stasis?
4/12 Compute is the new currency
It is used to recruit engineers, drive productivity, allocate importance of projects
Companies may eventually measure their teams in token budgets vs just dollars
It is used to recruit engineers, drive productivity, allocate importance of projects
Companies may eventually measure their teams in token budgets vs just dollars
5/12 Hidden Layoffs & Developing World
First cuts by companies due to AI actually outsourcing firms for support, IT etc
Domestic "AI Cuts" drastically overstated and likely just overhiring from before (for now)
These companies domiciled in hand full of countries. Will these countries be first to have real AI GDP negative impact? Does this impact migration patterns?
First cuts by companies due to AI actually outsourcing firms for support, IT etc
Domestic "AI Cuts" drastically overstated and likely just overhiring from before (for now)
These companies domiciled in hand full of countries. Will these countries be first to have real AI GDP negative impact? Does this impact migration patterns?
6/12 Employee headcount is going to flatten for lots of companies & then shrink
Multiple later stage CEOs told me that rather then do big layoffs due to AI, they will just stop growing. So if revenue at the company is growing 30%, 50%, or 100%, headcount may be flat or slightly down as they allow attrition to shrink staff
Some employee salaries will go up for a bit due to this
Multiple later stage CEOs told me that rather then do big layoffs due to AI, they will just stop growing. So if revenue at the company is growing 30%, 50%, or 100%, headcount may be flat or slightly down as they allow attrition to shrink staff
Some employee salaries will go up for a bit due to this
7/12 Slop Era may be humanities productivity golden age - AI good enough to give leverage (slop) but still need people to clean up the slop
8/12 AI will eat closed loops first
Fastest time to impact will be fast closed loop + high economic value (this explains SW engineering, customer support)
Fastest time to impact will be fast closed loop + high economic value (this explains SW engineering, customer support)
9/12 Artisanal engineers will be be increasingly unhappy inside companies.
Deep artisanal “my code is my craft” and “I love creating bespoke things” engineers decreasingly happy in world of AI. Systems thinkers and product thinkers engineers happiest. Many people are a mix of both
Deep artisanal “my code is my craft” and “I love creating bespoke things” engineers decreasingly happy in world of AI. Systems thinkers and product thinkers engineers happiest. Many people are a mix of both
10/12 Harness creating more and more stickiness to models
If you look at the use of AI coding tools, the harness (and broader product surface area eg UX, workflow, etc) seems to be increasingly sticky in the short term.
It is not just the model you use, but the environment, prompting, etc you build around it that helps impact your choice. Brand also matters more then many people think. At some point, either one coding model breaks very far ahead, or they stay neck in neck. How important is the harness/workflow long term for defensibility for coding or enterprise applications?
If you look at the use of AI coding tools, the harness (and broader product surface area eg UX, workflow, etc) seems to be increasingly sticky in the short term.
It is not just the model you use, but the environment, prompting, etc you build around it that helps impact your choice. Brand also matters more then many people think. At some point, either one coding model breaks very far ahead, or they stay neck in neck. How important is the harness/workflow long term for defensibility for coding or enterprise applications?
11/12 AI is about selling work, not software. Units of labor as the product
This is a big shift in TAM, agents, how to build product in the AI era. Many AI markets are 10-100X the size of their seat based software counterparts
This is a big shift in TAM, agents, how to build product in the AI era. Many AI markets are 10-100X the size of their seat based software counterparts
12/12 Most AI companies should consider exiting in the next 12-18 months
13/12 Anti-AI regulation & violence will both increase
It is important for leaders in tech and AI to point out the benefits of AI to society and the world more aggressively
It is important for leaders in tech and AI to point out the benefits of AI to society and the world more aggressively
Link to fuller post:
substack.com/home/post/p-19…
substack.com/home/post/p-19…
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