FOMC tomorrow is getting ignored because of the U.S./Iran war. That’s a mistake.
Rates aren’t moving.
But the path of rates is.
This meeting will move stocks, bonds, gold, and the dollar.
Here’s what actually matters 🧵👇
Zero chance of a rate hike or cut tomorrow.
So what matters?
👉 Future rate cuts
The market expects:
• 1 cut this year
• 1 cut in 2026
If that path changes, everything reprices.
So what matters?
👉 Future rate cuts
The market expects:
• 1 cut this year
• 1 cut in 2026
If that path changes, everything reprices.
The Fed communicates through 2 things:
The dot plot.
The statement.
That’s it.
If those materially change, markets move. If not, it’s a nothingburger.
The dot plot.
The statement.
That’s it.
If those materially change, markets move. If not, it’s a nothingburger.
The dots matter most.
December showed:
👉 1 cut in 2026
If that remains = neutral
If more Fed members shift to no cuts = hawkish
Dispersion matters. The market is watching how divided they are.
December showed:
👉 1 cut in 2026
If that remains = neutral
If more Fed members shift to no cuts = hawkish
Dispersion matters. The market is watching how divided they are.
Now the statement:
Watch 2 lines:
• “Balance of risks”
• Forward guidance
Right now:
The Fed is open to cuts
If they change to inflation concerns or remove "when" cuts happen → that’s hawkish.
Watch 2 lines:
• “Balance of risks”
• Forward guidance
Right now:
The Fed is open to cuts
If they change to inflation concerns or remove "when" cuts happen → that’s hawkish.
What about oil + war?
It matters, but not tomorrow.
The Fed will likely sit on its hands and wait.
They don’t react to spikes.
They react to persistence.
It matters, but not tomorrow.
The Fed will likely sit on its hands and wait.
They don’t react to spikes.
They react to persistence.
BASE CASE:
• No rate change
• No major statement changes
• 2026 dot still shows 1 cut
👉 Market reaction: small relief rally
Nothing explosive. Just positioning unwind.
• No rate change
• No major statement changes
• 2026 dot still shows 1 cut
👉 Market reaction: small relief rally
Nothing explosive. Just positioning unwind.
HAWKISH SCENARIO:
• 2026 dot shows NO cuts
• Statement leans inflation
• Forward guidance shifts to “if” not “when”
👉 Translation: Fed is on hold
Markets will not like that.
• 2026 dot shows NO cuts
• Statement leans inflation
• Forward guidance shifts to “if” not “when”
👉 Translation: Fed is on hold
Markets will not like that.
Hawkish Market Reaction:
• Stocks drop hard
• Cyclicals lead lower
• Dollar rips
• Yields jump
• Gold gets hit
This removes a key tailwind: rate cuts.
• Stocks drop hard
• Cyclicals lead lower
• Dollar rips
• Yields jump
• Gold gets hit
This removes a key tailwind: rate cuts.
DOVISH SCENARIO:
• More Fed members signal cuts
• Dot plot leans easier
Highly unlikely (won't happen), but possible.
• More Fed members signal cuts
• Dot plot leans easier
Highly unlikely (won't happen), but possible.
Dovish Market Reaction:
• Stocks rip higher
• Tech + cyclicals lead
• Dollar drops
• Yields fall
• Gold explodes
This is the “liquidity is coming” trade.
• Stocks rip higher
• Tech + cyclicals lead
• Dollar drops
• Yields fall
• Gold explodes
This is the “liquidity is coming” trade.
Bottom line:
This meeting isn’t about today.
It’s about 2026.
If the Fed pulls back on cuts, stocks have a problem.
If they hold the line, path of least resistance is higher.
Watch the dots.
This meeting isn’t about today.
It’s about 2026.
If the Fed pulls back on cuts, stocks have a problem.
If they hold the line, path of least resistance is higher.
Watch the dots.
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