Google has a Gemini Problem, and Chamath has a plan to fix it 📈

On E225, the besties discussed how Google can cut ChatGPT's lead over Gemini without killing its $200B/year search ads business.

@DavidSacks:

"I think the problem that Google has with respect to ChatGPT, is Gemini is not getting the usage, and ChatGPT is just growing like crazy."

"If you look at how these models perform according to the benchmarks, Gemini is actually really good, but they have not caught up on the usage side."

@friedberg:

"Chamath,  you're the CEO of Google, you've got a $200B run rate search ad business."

"What's the right integration of Gemini such that you don't massively disrupt the search ad business overnight?"

"Or do you not care and you're just gonna do it? I think that's the conundrum (Google) is dealing with."

@chamath:

" The more difficult question is, what does the integration look like?"

"They're already inserting Gemini in all kinds of uncomfortable ways."

"So for example, if you use Gmail, or if you use Google Workspace, what happens today is all these random Gemini pop-ups come up all over the place."

"That is an implementation that happened at way too junior a level by people that have no product taste."

"And if you use the products every day, it would be hard for you to disagree with me."

@DavidSacks:

" The Google homepage, would you replace that with an AI chatbot?"

@chamath:

" No. Here's what I would do: I would first go to the critical other points that are around, that today do not cannibalize the blue links."

"If you look at the traffic patterns, almost as a Sankey diagram, the real thing you should be looking at here is where are the entry points into Google that then result in a clickable link."

"And what it would show you is that there are certain places that are highly de-optimized today for revenue generating events."

"They happen as a byproduct, but they don't happen as the use case."

"So in that example, you would put Gmail as a critical place, the Google one subscription, and there's like five or six other places."

"That's where I would put Gemini as the front door and start to habituate 300 to 500 million people a week in using that."

"I think then you can figure out over time how much money you can make from all of that, or how it directs derivative revenue, and figure out what to do with Google dot com last."

"But my point is, the experience in Gmail should be done today."

"The experience in YouTube should be done today."

"The experience in Google one should be done today."