I'm about to answer the most important question in crypto right now:
Where are we in the crypto cycle?
I dug through the data, and discovered:
• When $BTC will (likely) top this cycle
• When the REAL altcoin season is going to begin
🧵: Here's what comes next for crypto.👇
Firstly, let's take a look at how #Bitcoin is tracking in relation to past cycles.
Perhaps the most intriguing data point of all is just how similar BTC's price action is to previous bull runs (2012, 2016 and 2020).
There is nothing (so far) to suggest that the final phase will play out any differently from past cycles.
In fact, the similarities are astounding.
There is nothing (so far) to suggest that the final phase will play out any differently from past cycles.
In fact, the similarities are astounding.
Extrapolating this data, you can assert that we are now in Phase 3 of the bull run.
This is the most aggressive expansionary phase which occurs ~200 days after the Bitcoin halving.
This is the most aggressive expansionary phase which occurs ~200 days after the Bitcoin halving.
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Purely based on timing from the the last 2-3 cycle's data, it is alluding to either:
A May/June 2025 top (from cycle bottom), or
An August/September 2025 top (from halving & ATH break).
A May/June 2025 top (from cycle bottom), or
An August/September 2025 top (from halving & ATH break).
To categorise things even further, here are the predictions for a potential top relying on historical data:
Based on cycle length: Q2 2025
Based on halving date: Q3 2025
Based on ATH break: Q3 2025
Based on cycle length: Q2 2025
Based on halving date: Q3 2025
Based on ATH break: Q3 2025
Remember that the actual timing of the top will only become more apparent closer to the event.
We'll likely know in Q1 next year whether momentum is stalling, or still in favour of continued upside.
But it's still a good gauge to have nonetheless.
We'll likely know in Q1 next year whether momentum is stalling, or still in favour of continued upside.
But it's still a good gauge to have nonetheless.
So - let's assume $BTC IS set for a cycle top sometime mid-next year.
What about altcoins? When will they outperform?
What about altcoins? When will they outperform?
So far this cycle, although we've seen some strong gains across alts, we haven't seen a fully-fledged altcoin season yet like we saw in 2021.
This is because we're still in the "Bitcoin phase" of the cycle.
This is the phase where BTC is still in price discovery, and sucking up the majority of fresh liquidity.
Altcoins won't truly rally until we see a momentum shift.
This is the phase where BTC is still in price discovery, and sucking up the majority of fresh liquidity.
Altcoins won't truly rally until we see a momentum shift.
$BTC dominance keeps grinding higher.
Only when BTC dominance breaks down can a true alt season ignite.
For now, it's in an uptrend and we must respect that.
Only when BTC dominance breaks down can a true alt season ignite.
For now, it's in an uptrend and we must respect that.
At this stage of the cycle, it's actually an extremely healthy thing for BTC to be outperforming.
We need a healthy BTC to set the stage for a sustainable altcoin rally.
The higher BTC goes, the more aggressive the eventual capital rotation will be into alts.
We need a healthy BTC to set the stage for a sustainable altcoin rally.
The higher BTC goes, the more aggressive the eventual capital rotation will be into alts.
Last cycle, during this phase of the market, $BTC continued to outperform towards the end of 2020 until alts finally took the spotlight in the post-halving year of 2021.
If the same pattern repeats, then you could expect a shift into altcoins in early 2025.
If the same pattern repeats, then you could expect a shift into altcoins in early 2025.
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We're still only at 21% on the speculation index.
Last cycle, we hit 90%+.
There is still a lot of room to run for alts.
Last cycle, we hit 90%+.
There is still a lot of room to run for alts.
Not to mention that we haven't even broken yearly highs yet, let alone come close to 2021 highs (I expect at some point we go even beyond this level).
And of course, fundamentally, the market is underpinned by one of the best macro setups we've ever had for crypto (or any liquid market for that matter).
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Until then, be patient, play the market trend, focus on stacking quality projects that you fundamentally believe in, and most importantly - enjoy the ride.
Over the coming weeks, I'm going to be sharing my full altcoin accumulation lists from my top sectors like AI, RWA, memes & more.
To stay in the loop, make sure you're following me @milesdeutscher.
Also, if you enjoyed this post, Like/Repost the quote below. 💙
To stay in the loop, make sure you're following me @milesdeutscher.
Also, if you enjoyed this post, Like/Repost the quote below. 💙
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