@AlanVRK: Absolutely disgusting abuse of...

Absolutely disgusting abuse of the Israeli contestant.

Despite the fact it was a backlash against such abuse that boosted the public vote for Israel in 2024 & 2025,
this guy wrote a huge article in yesterday's @nytimes pretending it was Netanyahu manipulating the vote.
@strxwmxn

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The article implied, on the flimsiest of evidence, that sinister and extraordinary attempts to influence the public vote had been going on for years.

No comparison with other countries was made at any point.

Let's see what evidence we can find for that.

Bear in mind that the question was raised
only when Israel came second in the public vote in 2024
and first in 2025,
much to annoyance of Team Keffiyeh
who had been demanding Israel be excluded
and abusing their contestant.

The unexpectedly strong public vote performance
in 2024 and 2025 needs no explanation.

It was an entirely predictable consequence of the behavior of the anti-Israel squad.
Indeed I predicted it ⤵️one day before the 2024 Final.

Let's look at prior years.

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The current voting system has been in use since 2016.

There is a vote by members of the public (online and by telephone) and a separate vote by juries of "experts".
Those two votes have equal weights and are added together.

There is a significant correlation between the two scores.

If Israel has been excessively influencing the public vote for years, we should be able to see that. We'd expect the public vote to be excessively high compared to the jury vote, as it was in 2024 and 2025.

Let's see.

Here's a scatter plot of the average difference between the total public vote score and the total jury vote score.

I've also plotted on the vertical axis the correlation between the two scores for each country over 2016 to 2023.

Can you spot Israel?
(Hint: No)
@wokbonds

I've included all of those countries which reached the final at least four times in that period.

To add a little more information to that graph, the size of the marker is proportional to the total score received over those seven years (no contest in 2020).
The color represents the average score excluding those where they didn't reach the final and is darker for higher scores.

I'm gonna pause for a few minutes and see if anyone thinks any of the dots in that scatterplot is the result of Netanyahu's sinister world-controlling hand, as implied by the @nytimes.

The marker in top right is Ukraine, should you have picked that one already.

@MarkZlochin @Claire_V0ltaire @Aizenberg55 @HonestReporting @CAMERAorgUK

@wokbonds @nytimes @MarkZlochin Now here's another graph.

This time Team Keffiyeh's hand is at work.

It includes the two years where everyone
(except seemingly the two Eurovision experts of @nytimes)
can remember an entirely organic surge in the popular vote for Israel
in a backlash to how they were treated.

@wokbonds @nytimes @MarkZlochin I made that plot for the first time just this minute.

I think there's now a reasonable chance you can guess which marker corresponds to Israel. They can thank Greta for their good fortune, and tell @nytimes to stop wasting their money trying to solve complete non-mysteries.

@wokbonds @nytimes @MarkZlochin I'll give you the answer shortly.

There are other tests one might reasonably do.
The same @nytimes authors suggested, in a frankly even more absurd article that appeared on the same day, that manipulation was very easy in countries with few voters.
nytimes.com/2026/05/11/wor…

@wokbonds @nytimes @MarkZlochin Their argument was that in those case, all you needed to do was persuade 500 of your closest friends to each cast 20 votes for Israel.

You'd need to do that in 14 countries to achieve Israel's 2025 performance, and they have rigorous checks on the country the votes come from.

@wokbonds @nytimes @MarkZlochin That's not even counting the six countries where Israel came second in the popular vote and so forth.

Which countries could these be? They'd need to be countries with very few voters. 1% of the total European vote, or even less.

@wokbonds @nytimes @MarkZlochin Spain has notoriously low participation, around 140,000 out of 17 million in Eurovision, and this applies to televoting competitions generally. That's well-known already ⤵️and seems to be why @nytimes picked it.

But presumably most would be small nations.
escinsight.com/2025/05/24/how…

@wokbonds @nytimes @MarkZlochin Oops.

That didn't happen at all.

If this was a coordinated plot, they wasted an awful lot of advertising on winning big countries and neglected the smaller ones almost entirely. Most incompetent vote rigging ever.

Greta keeps the credit.

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Before I forget, I'll tell you the answer.

Start with the second case,which includes 2024 and 2025 (and excludes the first two years, to keep the number of contests the same as the first plot, but also frankly to make the answer easier)

We expect it to be to the right, meaning the average popular vote is a great deal higher than the average jury vote.

Sample correlation is notoriously noisy anyway, but we'd probably imagine the increased popular vote has precious little correlation with the jury vote, so close to zero, which means towards the lower part of the plot - correlations are normally positive.

So I think there's a fair chance of guessing that one. None of this is surprising. Israel's popular vote *was* artificially boosted, not by Netanyahu (he just doesn't have that much power, and the advertising spend was pretty small), but by the anti-Israel crew annoying everyone.

Now let's look without those two years. According to @nytimes the plot was in full swing already for most of that time.

Doesn't stand out from the crowd, does it?

The popular vote vs jury vote difference is near zero, and the correlation between the two is pretty high, both indicators of non-manipulation. And neither is exceptional in any way.

These were the first measures I checked, but looking at other basic tests you might dream up doesn't make much difference: nothing to see here.