@michalpur: Eastern Europe warned about Pu...
@michalpur
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Mar 27, 2026
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Eastern Europe warned about Putin.
Eastern Europe warned about Nord Stream 2.
Eastern Europe warned about the costs of the Green Deal.
For years, Brussels called them alarmists.
Then reality arrived. 🧵
Eastern Europe warned about Nord Stream 2.
Eastern Europe warned about the costs of the Green Deal.
For years, Brussels called them alarmists.
Then reality arrived. 🧵
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Germany spent years insisting Nord Stream 2 was "just a private-sector project."
Poland called it a geopolitical weapon.
In February 2022, after Russia escalated, Germany froze the certification.
Eastern Europe was right. Germany rationalised. Reality intervened.
Poland called it a geopolitical weapon.
In February 2022, after Russia escalated, Germany froze the certification.
Eastern Europe was right. Germany rationalised. Reality intervened.
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The West's mistake wasn't stupidity.
It was the luxury of forgetting.
Post-Cold War comfort bred a belief that trade civilises autocrats, that rules replace force, that history is over.
Eastern Europe never believed this. Because Eastern Europe had seen too much.
It was the luxury of forgetting.
Post-Cold War comfort bred a belief that trade civilises autocrats, that rules replace force, that history is over.
Eastern Europe never believed this. Because Eastern Europe had seen too much.
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On the Green Deal, the pattern was identical.
Eastern countries warned: this is being designed for rich countries with fiscal room, not for households paying heating bills.
Brussels called them obstructionists.
Today? The Commission launched an Affordable Energy Action Plan. Von der Leyen admitted nuclear cuts were a "strategic mistake."
Eastern countries warned: this is being designed for rich countries with fiscal room, not for households paying heating bills.
Brussels called them obstructionists.
Today? The Commission launched an Affordable Energy Action Plan. Von der Leyen admitted nuclear cuts were a "strategic mistake."
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The real divide in Europe isn't East vs. West.
It's comfort vs. memory.
The West had the luxury of believing history was over.
The East remembers occupation, coercion, and what happens when ideology outruns logistics.
It's comfort vs. memory.
The West had the luxury of believing history was over.
The East remembers occupation, coercion, and what happens when ideology outruns logistics.
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That's why Eastern Europe often sounded less sophisticated — and was more correct.
Poland, Estonia, Czech Republic, the Baltics.
Their political class is rougher. Less polished.
But polish is not the same as judgment.
Poland, Estonia, Czech Republic, the Baltics.
Their political class is rougher. Less polished.
But polish is not the same as judgment.
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A Union that ignores the instincts of the part of Europe that still recognises danger will keep making elegant mistakes.
Reality, as it turns out, was speaking Polish, Czech, Estonian and Lithuanian long before Brussels decided to hear it.
Reality, as it turns out, was speaking Polish, Czech, Estonian and Lithuanian long before Brussels decided to hear it.
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I write about Europe's energy, power and politics — without the euphemisms.
Full piece + more like this: mpvp.substack.com
Full piece + more like this: mpvp.substack.com