@Research_FRI: What do experts and superforec...
@Research_FRI
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Jan 12, 2026
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What do experts and superforecasters think about the future of AI research and development?
In Wave 4 of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), we asked top AI experts to forecast progress in AI R&D, hiring, company valuations, data center buildout, and more.
Here’s what you need to know 🧵
In Wave 4 of the Longitudinal Expert AI Panel (LEAP), we asked top AI experts to forecast progress in AI R&D, hiring, company valuations, data center buildout, and more.
Here’s what you need to know 🧵
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📈 AI benchmark progress is advancing faster than experts expect
AI performance on hard coding tasks is a useful indicator of potential capability increases in self-improving AI R&D: when models take an active role in improving AI itself.
The median forecaster significantly underestimated progress on LiveCodeBench Pro—a benchmark that tracks performance on tough programming tasks.
The median expert in our sample predicted state-of-the-art performance on LiveCodeBench Pro (Hard) of 14% in 2026 and 33% by the end of 2030. Since the survey closed, GPT-5.2 has already hit 33% on the benchmark.
A quarter of experts and superforecasters expect major progress on this coding benchmark, providing 50th percentile forecasts of at least 60% accuracy by 2030.
We plan to identify which forecasters were most accurate on questions like this to see what they believe about other topics.
AI performance on hard coding tasks is a useful indicator of potential capability increases in self-improving AI R&D: when models take an active role in improving AI itself.
The median forecaster significantly underestimated progress on LiveCodeBench Pro—a benchmark that tracks performance on tough programming tasks.
The median expert in our sample predicted state-of-the-art performance on LiveCodeBench Pro (Hard) of 14% in 2026 and 33% by the end of 2030. Since the survey closed, GPT-5.2 has already hit 33% on the benchmark.
A quarter of experts and superforecasters expect major progress on this coding benchmark, providing 50th percentile forecasts of at least 60% accuracy by 2030.
We plan to identify which forecasters were most accurate on questions like this to see what they believe about other topics.
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🧑💻 Entry-level tech hiring may stay low for decades
Experts predict that the share of new hires with ≤1 year of experience at top tech firms will remain around 7% through 2040. Some respondents point to AI tools reducing the need for junior roles.
This is well below the 15% share of entry-level hires reached in 2019 and 2023.
Experts predict that the share of new hires with ≤1 year of experience at top tech firms will remain around 7% through 2040. Some respondents point to AI tools reducing the need for junior roles.
This is well below the 15% share of entry-level hires reached in 2019 and 2023.
