@Brad_Setser: European exports to China cont...

European exports to China continue their slow march down -- trend is super clear.

European exports to the US are still rising, but obviously inflated by American pharmaceutical companies producing in Europe to avoid US tax

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European imports from China are volatile on a month to month basis (May didn't match the crazy March number) but are clearly trending up ...

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Those who thought that the rise in the euro area's deficit with China was just a pandemic blip (cough, the IMF) need to look at the data from the last two years. Trend is clear, and the CNY's weakness v the EUR will accelerate it

3/

And Europe needs to be prepared for a world where it cannot offset falling exports to China with rising exports to the US -- the numbers are inflated by Irish pharma, but there are sectors where the offset from the US has been very real (autos is the most important)

4/4