@LynAldenContact: Notably, the long-term debt cy...
@LynAldenContact
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Jun 13, 2025
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Notably, the long-term debt cycle coincides with the 4th turnings.
I mainly focus on what's happening quantitatively (debt). But keeping in mind the changing social/geopolitical dynamic is a nice accompaniment to that. Old institutions/norms facing entropy, death, rebirth.
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I mainly focus on what's happening quantitatively (debt). But keeping in mind the changing social/geopolitical dynamic is a nice accompaniment to that. Old institutions/norms facing entropy, death, rebirth.
🧵
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Published in 1997, The Fourth Turning spoke of 80-100 year cycles of history, with each fourth one being a "crisis" period.
It predicted 2005-2025+ would be the next 4th turning era. Where old institutions get restructured, social norms rapidly shift, and so forth.
It predicted 2005-2025+ would be the next 4th turning era. Where old institutions get restructured, social norms rapidly shift, and so forth.
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Some people dismiss 4th turnings as pseudoscience, and I do get that.
But when you combine it with a quantitative backbone like this, it strengthens the useful aspects of it.
Naturally, any major sovereign-level debt cycle is going to coincide with big shifts in other things.
But when you combine it with a quantitative backbone like this, it strengthens the useful aspects of it.
Naturally, any major sovereign-level debt cycle is going to coincide with big shifts in other things.
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1st Turning: High/Unification- Society gets very unified/structured after prior crisis
2nd Turning: Awakening- some pushback against rigid structures/norms
3rd Turning: Unraveling- gradual decay of structures
4th Turning: Crisis- death of old structures, birth of new
2nd Turning: Awakening- some pushback against rigid structures/norms
3rd Turning: Unraveling- gradual decay of structures
4th Turning: Crisis- death of old structures, birth of new
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Precisely how long each era takes is not my interest.
But the general shape of it is: society unifies in a productive but rigid way, then slowly becomes more individualistic against that, entropy/debt builds up in the system, then there's a reset, and people crave unification.
But the general shape of it is: society unifies in a productive but rigid way, then slowly becomes more individualistic against that, entropy/debt builds up in the system, then there's a reset, and people crave unification.
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And the broad timeline strokes are about right. Institutions, norms, and social contracts built 80-100 years ago are long enough that those who were adults at the time are gone.
Society runs on those, but things change, and needs to form new institutions/norms/contracts.
Society runs on those, but things change, and needs to form new institutions/norms/contracts.
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The accumulation of debt is a good quantifiable representation of entropy building up in the system during the 2nd and 3rd turnings, and then effectively being defaulted/debased in the 4th turning, in parallel to whatever is happening socially/geopolitically along the way.