@KobeissiLetter: This is truly insane:On Febr...
@KobeissiLetter
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Apr 06, 2025
1
This is truly insane:
On February 20, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon sold $234 million worth of $JPM stock.
On February 22, Warren Buffett disclosed a record $334 BILLION cash balance.
30 trading days later, the Nasdaq 100 crashed -24%.
How did they know?
(a thread)
On February 20, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon sold $234 million worth of $JPM stock.
On February 22, Warren Buffett disclosed a record $334 BILLION cash balance.
30 trading days later, the Nasdaq 100 crashed -24%.
How did they know?
(a thread)
2
Jamie Dimon's purchases and sales of $JPM have been widely watched over the years.
They are also generally regarded as a "leading indicator" for the broader market.
Since Dimon sold, $JPM has fallen over -25% in the sharpest drop since 2022.
How did he know yet again?
They are also generally regarded as a "leading indicator" for the broader market.
Since Dimon sold, $JPM has fallen over -25% in the sharpest drop since 2022.
How did he know yet again?
3
This marks the 2nd major "Dimon Pivot" of the 2020s.
The first was during the pandemic in May 2020, when Jamie Dimon joined CNBC and said $JPM was "very valuable" amid the crash.
Within 3 weeks, $JPM had traded +41% higher.
Dimon has called multiple tops and bottoms.
The first was during the pandemic in May 2020, when Jamie Dimon joined CNBC and said $JPM was "very valuable" amid the crash.
Within 3 weeks, $JPM had traded +41% higher.
Dimon has called multiple tops and bottoms.
4
In the early days of the trade war, Jamie Dimon was one of the first to sell.
On February 20th, Dimon sold 866,361 shares of $JPM at a price of ~$269.83/share, totaling $234M.
At the time, markets believed that Trump's tariffs were just "posturing" and the dip would be bought.
On February 20th, Dimon sold 866,361 shares of $JPM at a price of ~$269.83/share, totaling $234M.
At the time, markets believed that Trump's tariffs were just "posturing" and the dip would be bought.
5
2 days later, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway announced they hold a record $334 billion in cash.
Between Q1 2024 and Q4 2024, their cash balance rose a massive $145.2 BILLION.
Even multiple tech stocks were down 20%+ from their highs, Buffett kept raising cash.
Between Q1 2024 and Q4 2024, their cash balance rose a massive $145.2 BILLION.
Even multiple tech stocks were down 20%+ from their highs, Buffett kept raising cash.
6
Warren Buffet was asked about why he decided to build such a large cash balance.
"Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities," he said.
Buffett was basically saying that *most* stocks appeared to be overvalued.
"Often, nothing looks compelling; very infrequently we find ourselves knee-deep in opportunities," he said.
Buffett was basically saying that *most* stocks appeared to be overvalued.
7
Since then, EVERY Magnificent 7 stock is down at least -25% from its ATH.
Nvidia, $NVDA, once the largest company, has erased -40% of its value and hedge funds have begun selling aggressively.
On Thursday, hedge funds sold $40 BILLION of stock, the largest sale since 2010.
Nvidia, $NVDA, once the largest company, has erased -40% of its value and hedge funds have begun selling aggressively.
On Thursday, hedge funds sold $40 BILLION of stock, the largest sale since 2010.
8
In fact, the world's richest 500 people just saw their largest 2-day net worth loss in history.
Between April 3rd and 4th, these individuals lost -$536 billion of net worth.
This is $83 billion MORE than March 11th and 12th, 2020.
But, one name on the list stands out.
Between April 3rd and 4th, these individuals lost -$536 billion of net worth.
This is $83 billion MORE than March 11th and 12th, 2020.
But, one name on the list stands out.
9
Warren Buffett has actually seen a net INCREASE in net worth year-to-date.
Since January 1st, Buffett's net worth has risen by +$12.7 billion, to $155 billion.
He is the only name on the top 10 list that has not seen a decline in net worth in 2025 so far.
Since January 1st, Buffett's net worth has risen by +$12.7 billion, to $155 billion.
He is the only name on the top 10 list that has not seen a decline in net worth in 2025 so far.
10
And, while the market has collapsed, Berkshire Hathaway stock, $BRK.B, is up +9.4%.
Much of this is due to the fact that Warren Buffett was sidelined while everyone else was blind sided.
We would not be surprised if Buffett begins deploying some of his cash soon.
Much of this is due to the fact that Warren Buffett was sidelined while everyone else was blind sided.
We would not be surprised if Buffett begins deploying some of his cash soon.
11
Warren Buffett's famous quote is to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
Over the last 6 months, market sentiment has gone from Geed, 75, to Extreme Fear, 4.
This is the lowest Fear & Greed reading since the March 2020 pandemic crash.
Over the last 6 months, market sentiment has gone from Geed, 75, to Extreme Fear, 4.
This is the lowest Fear & Greed reading since the March 2020 pandemic crash.
12
Sentiment is polarized and fear is at March 2020 levels which means more volatility is ahead.
Our subscribers are capitalizing on these swings.
Want to see how we are trading it?
Subscribe at the link below to access our latest analysis and alerts:
thekobeissiletter.com/pricing
Our subscribers are capitalizing on these swings.
Want to see how we are trading it?
Subscribe at the link below to access our latest analysis and alerts:
thekobeissiletter.com/pricing
13
Lastly, the divergence in share price performance of Berkshire Hathaway and the S&P 500 is telling.
During times of uncertainty, the best investors are able to capitalize.
Use volatility to your advantage.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
During times of uncertainty, the best investors are able to capitalize.
Use volatility to your advantage.
Follow us @KobeissiLetter for real time analysis as this develops.
